First Financial Bankshares (FFIN)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.17-0.53%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Financial Bankshares’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.16 → 2.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	179.89M
EPS	—	0.521
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	178.8M
EPS	—	0.506
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	703.17M
EPS	—	2.038
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	741.54M
EPS	—	2.135

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
annual earnings per share	Earnings per share should reach at least $1.77 in 2026.	Improving	EPS falls below $1.77 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
profit margin levels	A supporting condition in First Financial Bankshares's published investment case. The stated target is maintain current profit margin levels.	Intact	profit margins decline significantly below recent levels	Net margin: 38.66% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: maintain current profit margin levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Aug 4, 202638.661002 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ce8b9143-29b4-4ed3-ba2d-152f0515adab. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
annual revenue growth rate	A primary condition in First Financial Bankshares's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20267.609513 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ce8b9143-29b4-4ed3-ba2d-152f0515adab. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.13

$2.16 → $2.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.74B

Unavailable → $0.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.16	$745,548,000	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$2.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$2.14	$741,993,286	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.14	$741,993,286	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.13	$741,536,143	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.13	$741,536,143	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.13	$741,536,143	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.13	$741,536,143	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.13	$741,536,143	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	4
2026-06-01	1	4
2026-07-01	1	4
2026-08-01	1	5
2026-09-01	1	6
2026-10-01	1	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 19 · prior Oct 16

$34.00 → $33.00-2.9%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 14 · prior Jul 15

$35.00 → $34.00-2.9%

$0$19.25$38.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

annual earnings per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
profit margin levelsNet margin: 38.66%
annual revenue growth rateRevenue growth: 7.61%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Financial Bankshares outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FFIN is a financially strong regional bank with a durable premium, supported by recent results and management’s reported balance-sheet growth. Its long-term thesis is intact, although the sector backdrop is a headwind and the evidence on credit quality is mixed.

What's priced into First Financial Bankshares

FFIN is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence characterizes that premium as justified by durable business quality. The expectations gap is modest, with no signs in the snapshot of concentrated fragility, so the valuation already reflects relatively strong expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong relative to the industry, and the latest two earnings updates were in line. Loans and deposits have grown, and capital strengthened, while nonperforming assets edged higher; management’s stated priorities are broadly on track but credit-quality progress is limited. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though recent industry misses and FFIN’s history of a deep miss remain relevant risks.

What First Financial Bankshares hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued loan and deposit growth alongside disciplined risk management and strong capital. A guidance cut on the next call or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable under the supplied scenarios. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.