Reading EPAC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPAC free→Reading EPAC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EPAC free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, EPAC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If EPAC cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 EPAC trades at 20× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $45 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.63 → $0.65 (+3.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$305.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,532.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show bigger problems with profits and costs.
Confirms:Net earnings reported below $16 million for Q2.
Disproves:Net earnings reported above $20 million for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EPAC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On March 25, 2026, Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended February 28, 2026,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EPAC Enerpac Tool Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing organic growth in the Industrial Tool & Service (IT&S) segment.
Address market-related challenges in the EMEA region by rightsizing the cost structure.
Continue returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Enerpac is doing. It will also show market trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share exceeds analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will give important details about sales and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show net sales growth above 5% year-over-year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows net sales growth below 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This shows weakness in the product business. It affects overall growth expectations.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth was below 1% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth was above 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Higher sales growth means strong demand and good execution of growth plans.
Confirms:Organic sales growth in IT&S exceeds 3% in the next quarterly report.
Disproves:Organic sales growth in IT&S remains below 1% in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Important economic data can affect how much people want Enerpac's tools. It also affects the health of the whole sector.
Confirms one read:Consumer Price Index shows inflation below 2% year over year.
Confirms the other:Producer Price Index shows inflation above 4% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a stronger demand for Enerpac's products.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rises above 8% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: These reports will change how people feel about the market. They could affect Enerpac's future.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims are falling a lot. This shows the job market is getting stronger.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims are rising quickly. This shows the economy is getting weaker.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program will show how Enerpac adds value for shareholders.
Confirms:Management says they completed the new $200 million share buyback program.
Disproves:No updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On October 15, 2025, Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended August 31, 202…