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Electro-Sensors Inc (ELSE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$7.68+0.26%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, and management's track record is stable. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 126% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Scientific & Technical Instruments
- Market cap
- $27.06M
- Employees
- 38
- IPO date
- 2003-05-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$3.35consensus
Range $0.81 – $5.02
vs price: +129% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$11.73consensus
Range $11.73 – $11.73
vs price: -35% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $7.68 ELSE trades at 3× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $3.35 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
2.7x
peer 3.7x · own history —
Premium
0.7x peer
Growth the price needs
129%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$3.35
range $0.81 – $5.01
WhyValuation methods disagreeEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 129% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
41st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
77th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.tailwind+24.0%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$26.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$296.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,900.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
Why it matters: This report can show consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could boost demand for Electro-Sensors' products.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ELSE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ELSE and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like COHR, KEYS, and TDY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting ELSE and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ELSE beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +60% on the 2025-09-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COHR, KEYS, and TDY start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping ELSE and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ELSE and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-241mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 20, 2026, Electro-Sensors, Inc. (“ Electro-Sensors ”, the “ Company ”, “ we ”, “ us ” or “ our ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with steute Industrial Controls, Inc., a Connecticut corporation (“ steute ” or “ Parent ”), and Steute Burwell, Inc., a Minnesota corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, Steute Burwell, Inc. will merge with and…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.