Reading ELMD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELMD free→Reading ELMD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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AMEXHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ELMD is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 ELMD trades at 32× p/e — 1.4× the 23× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $27 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 40% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.32 (+6.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$423.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,327.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a stronger market for Electromed. This would help its performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the Health Care sector rises back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Revenue growth is below 10%. It may keep slowing down.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ELMD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Electromed, Inc., a Minnesota corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference into this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ELMD Electromed, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Electromed aims for double-digit revenue growth by increasing market share and deeper penetration of SmartVest prescribers.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $146.68M in 2025-Q1 to $185.75M in 2026-Q3, indicating progress towards the double-digit growth target. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated growth priority.
“Electromed, Inc. is a growing medical device company focused on airway management.”
“Electromed, Inc. is a growing medical device company focused on airway management.”
“Electromed is committed to delivering long-term profitable growth Double-digit revenue growth.”
Electromed aims to improve operating margin through operating leverage as revenue increases.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Operating income grew from $1.94M in 2025-Q1 to $3.77M in 2026-Q3, indicating progress in improving operating margin. The trajectory shows delivering on the margin improvement priority.
“Operating Margin Improvement Operating leverage as revenue increases.”
Electromed plans to expand market share by increasing penetration of current SmartVest prescribers.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. While revenue growth indicates some progress, specific market share expansion metrics are not provided, making it difficult to assess the full delivery on this priority.
“Increase market share, deeper penetration of current SmartVest prescribers.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, Electromed, Inc., a Minnesota corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference into this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 16, 2025, Electromed, Inc. (the “Company”) entered a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with BMO Bank N.A. (“Lender”), as lender. The Credit Agreement provides the Company with a senior security credit facility with a $10,000,000 revolving line of credit (the “Credit Facility”). The Credit Agreement provides that the Credit Facility will mature on December 16, 2026. Any borrowings under the Credit Facility will bear interest at on…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. In connection with the execution of the Credit Facility described in response to
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 12, 2025, Electromed, Inc., a Minnesota corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference into this