Reading EFSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EFSC free→Reading EFSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EFSC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although compared with sector peers, EFSC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $62.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $63 EFSC trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $65 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.34 → $1.35 (+0.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$256.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,527.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and lending rules. This affects how much money EFSC makes.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates or signals a dovish stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EFSC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Enterprise Financial Services Corp (the "Company" or "EFSC") issued a press release announcing financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. On April 23, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Central time, the Company intends to hold a webcast to present information on its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into EFSC's financial health and growth. Investors will react to the results.
Confirms one read:Earnings are much higher than what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings are much lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact EFSC's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 26, 2026, Enterprise Financial Services Corp (the "Company" or "EFSC") issued a press release announcing financial information for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. On January 27, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Central time, the Company intends to hold a webcast to present information on its results of operations for the quarter ended December 31,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2025, Enterprise Financial Services Corp (the "Company" or "EFSC") issued a press release announcing financial information for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. On October 28, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Central time, the Company intends to hold a webcast to present information on its results of operations for the quarter ended September 3…
Regulation FD Disclosure. In response to investor inquiries about a recent peer bank 8-K filing, Enterprise Financial Services Corp (the “Company”) is providing additional information about certain Enterprise Bank & Trust’s (the “Bank”) credit relationships. The Bank has seven commercial real estate loans totaling $68.4 million in the aggregate to seven special purpose entities (each an “SPE Borrower”) affiliated with two commercial banking relationships in Southern California that share some…
Other Events. On October 10, 2025, (the "Closing Date"), the Company's wholly-owned subsidiary, EB&T, a Missouri state-chartered trust company with banking powers, closed on its previously-announced transaction with FIB, a Montana state-chartered bank. Pursuant to the terms of the Purchase and Assumption Agreement, dated as of April 28, 2025, by and between EB&T and FIB (the “Purchase Agreement”), EB&T acquired twelve (12) branches from FIB, with ten (10) in Arizona and two (2) in Kansas, cer…