Enterprise Financial Services Corp. (EFSC)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$61.35+0.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Enterprise Financial Services Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.89 → 5.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	200.46M
EPS	—	1.477
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	196.58M
EPS	—	1.374
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	769.37M
EPS	—	5.14
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	813.91M
EPS	—	5.933

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain financial flexibility with subordinated notes	Recent $175M debt issuance supports financial flexibility.	Intact	subordinated notes reduced below $150M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income near $55M and positive cash from operations	They maintain positive net income around $55M and good cash flow.	Intact	net income falls below $45M or cash flow turns negative	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income near $88.7M quarterly	Profit stays strong with operating income up to $88.7M.	Broken	operating income falls below $75M quarterly	Operating income: $52.245M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $85M operating income quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202652,245,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Quarterly revenue near $232M	Enterprise Financial Services keeps stable revenue near $232M quarterly.	Broken	quarterly revenue falls below $220M	Revenue: $229.313M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $230M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026229,313,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7f6551d8-7083-4210-83f5-3c5d3ef682fc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.93

Unavailable → $5.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$5.91	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	$5.91	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	$5.91	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$5.91	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$5.91	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-11	$5.91	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$5.91	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$5.88	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$5.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$5.89	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-15	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-16	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-17	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-18	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$5.91	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$5.93	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$5.93	Unavailable	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain financial flexibility with subordinated notesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net income near $55M and positive cash from operationsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income near $88.7M quarterlyPublished status: Broken
Quarterly revenue near $232MPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Enterprise Financial Services Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EFSC is a regional bank with a growth-and-capital-discipline thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. Its multi-year view is mixed: loan growth and repurchases are progressing, while recent performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Enterprise Financial Services Corp.

The evidence describes EFSC as cheap versus peers, with expectations only slightly above the model’s baseline. The market pricing is tagged as justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings misses and a run of misses are a concern, though the stated miss risk is low and the thesis has not freshly broken. Over the multi-year view, loans grew from the second to the third quarter of 2026, and the company returned capital through repurchases; its capital ratio remained within its stated range, though the capital-strength assessment is mixed.

What Enterprise Financial Services Corp. hinges on

The thesis would weaken if EFSC cuts guidance or if rate cuts weigh on the financial sector. It would gain support if financial-sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance, while EFSC sustains focused loan growth and disciplined capital allocation.