Reading DNA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DNA free→Reading DNA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DNA free→NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If DNA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.23 DNA trades at 3× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $28 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 71% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -48%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -20.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.70. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$346.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$914.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,605.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of profitability.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It also shows a way to make money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows bigger losses. There is no clear way to make money.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DNA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DNA Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ginkgo aims to manage its cash burn within the $125 million to $150 million range for the fiscal year 2026.
Ginkgo completed the acquisition of Tower Biosecurity, enhancing its biosecurity capabilities.
Ginkgo aims to achieve Biosecurity revenue of at least $40 million for the fiscal year 2025.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could help Ginkgo Bioworks. The sector's health affects its performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth moves back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On April 3, 2026, Ginkgo Bioworks, Inc. (the “Seller”), a wholly owned subsidiary Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) completed the previously announced transaction (the “Transaction”) with Tower Biosecurity, Inc. also known as Perimeter Systems, Inc. (the “Purchaser”) pursuant to the Stock Purchase Agreement, dated as of February 26, 2026 (the “Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Seller, the Company, the Purchaser and Ginkgo B…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter 2025 and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 26, 2026, Ginkgo Bioworks, Inc. (the “Seller”), a wholly owned subsidiary Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Tower Biosecurity, Inc. (the “Purchaser”) and Ginkgo Biosecurity, LLC (“Biosecurity”). Subject to the terms and conditions of the Purchase Agreement, the Seller will contribute to the Purchaser all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 18, 2025, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Dr. Reshma Shetty, the Company’s President, Chief Operating Officer, and member of the Board of Directors, will transition her Chief Operating Officer duties to Jennifer Wipf and Dr. Jason Kelly, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, on January 1, 2026. In connecti…