Reading CR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CR free→Reading CR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CR free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that the company's profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may concern some investors. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current market environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the company's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $207.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $207 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 24× p/e peer median but in line with its own 33× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $156 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 32% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.65 → $1.65 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$285.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,339.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would show strong growth and confidence in earnings. This could attract more investors.
Confirms:Management announces an increase in EPS guidance for 2026 during the next earnings call.
Disproves:EPS guidance remains unchanged or is lowered during the next earnings call.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously announced and disclosed on January 26, 2026, the Board of Directors of Crane Company (the “Company”) elected Alejandro (Alex) Alcala, who is currently serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, to the position of President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and Max Mitchell, who is currently serving as C…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CR Crane | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase the EPS guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
The company is committed to maintaining a steady growth in dividends.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities.
Why it matters: Maintaining or raising EPS guidance shows strong earnings momentum and confidence in growth.
Confirms:Management confirms adjusted EPS guidance remains in the range of $6.65-$6.85.
Disproves:Guidance is now below $6.65. This shows weaker performance expectations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into Crane's performance and market conditions. It will help assess growth potential.
Confirms one read:Earnings results show revenue growth above 8% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, it could help Crane's performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 8% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays under 6% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows strong finances and care for shareholders. This can help investor trust.
Confirms:Crane announces a dividend increase during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Crane announces no change or a decrease in dividends during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plan will show how he plans to lead Crane. It may impact future growth and investor confidence.
Confirms:CEO Alejandro Alcala announced the new plans and goals for the company.
Disproves:There is no announcement. The future plans of the company are unclear.
Why it matters: The new CEO's approach could shape future performance and strategic direction.
Confirms one read:CEO Alcala announced positive plans within six months.
Confirms the other:There is no clear strategy or performance issues after the transition.
Why it matters: Strong backlog growth shows good future revenue and strong demand.
Confirms:Core backlog growth is over 9% compared to last year.
Disproves:Core backlog growth falls below 9% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Core sales growth is strong. This shows good demand and healthy operations.
Confirms:Core sales growth turns positive after a decline of -0.6% in Q1.
Disproves:Core sales growth has been negative for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is working well. It is also financially healthy.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is now positive or has improved a lot since Q1.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is still negative or has worsened since Q1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Crane Company (the “Company”) announced its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The related press release and quarterly financial data supplement is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously announced and disclosed on January 26, 2026, the Board of Directors of Crane Company (the “Company”) elected Alejandro (Alex) Alcala, who is currently serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, to the position of President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and Max Mitchell, who is currently serving as C…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 30, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), Crane Company (the “Company”) entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, as borrower, CR Holdings, C.V. (“CR Holdings”), a subsidiary of the Company, as a subsidiary borrower, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPM”), as administrative agent. The Credit Agreement provides for a senior unsecured delayed draw term loan facility…
Creation of Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in