Reading COYA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COYA free→Reading COYA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COYA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key Healthcare bellwethers. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.89 COYA trades at 18× p/s — 1.9× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $4.51 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.67x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.38 → $-0.36 (+3.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 146.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$185.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$603.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,864.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation dimension changed, moving from expensive to full. The risk dimension remained elevated, while the sector backdrop was noted as a headwind. The recent financial performance was described as weak, and the earnings quality was characterized as loss-making.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing. A rebound could benefit Coya's outlook.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth shows signs of re-accelerating back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now lower than before.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COYA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information included in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information co…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COYA Coya Therapeutics Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ensure sufficient cash reserves to sustain operations into the second half of 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has not provided specific financial metrics to substantiate this priority. With a net income of -$7.2M and operating income of -$7.6M in 2026-Q1, maintaining the cash runway will require careful financial management. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“The Company reiterates its cash runway guidance into the second half of 2027.”
Focus on surpassing earnings expectations as demonstrated by recent performance.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite reporting an earnings beat, the financials show a net income of -$7.2M in 2026-Q1, indicating ongoing challenges. The focus on earnings beats is recurring, but substantive financial improvement remains limited.
“Coya reported an earnings beat in the recent quarter.”
“Coya reported an earnings beat in the recent quarter.”
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Leerink Partners LLC, as sales agent (“Leerink Partners”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell, from time to time through or to Leerink Partners, shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“Common Stock”), for aggregate gross proceeds of up to $30,000,000 (the “Placement Shares”). The offer and sal…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Director On March 29, 2026, Dr. Howard Berman resigned from the board of directors (the “Board”) of Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) and from his position as Executive Chairman, each effective as of April 1, 2026. In connection with Dr. Berman’s resignation as Executive Chairman, the Company and Dr. Berman entered into a Separat…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information included in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information co…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 29, 2026, Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “ Securities Purchase Agreement ”) with certain accredited investors (collectively, the “ Purchasers ”) for the issuance and sale in a private placement of 2,522,727 shares (the “ Shares ”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (“ Common Stock ”), at a purchase price of $4.40 per Share (the “ Offering ”). The Offering…