Reading CHMG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHMG free→Reading CHMG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHMG free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact CHMG's prospects. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash flow supports reported profits, while management's recent track record has been neutral. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $70 CHMG trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $80 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.76 → $1.76 (+0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$290.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,063.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Chemung is doing financially. It will also show trends in performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows stronger than expected revenue and profit growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings report reveals lower than expected revenue and profit growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHMG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 21, 2026, Chemung Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CHMG) issued a press release announcing the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.34 per share, payable July 1, 2026, to common stock shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 17, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHMG Chemung Financial Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may mean the economy is weak. This could affect Chemung's business.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are rising a lot compared to the last few weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims are going down or staying the same.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could affect Chemung's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector falls below its median level.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median level.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 17, 2026, Chemung Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CHMG) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the three month period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed filed for any purpose.
Other Events. On February 17, 2026, Chemung Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CHMG) issued a press release announcing the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.34 per share, payable April 1, 2026, to common stock shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 18, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 26, 2026, Chemung Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CHMG) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the three and twelve month periods ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed filed for any purpose.
Other Events. On November 18, 2025, Chemung Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CHMG) issued a press release announcing the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.34 per share, payable January 2, 2026, to common stock shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 19, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.