Chemung Financial Corp. (CHMG)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$83.88+0.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Chemung Financial Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	32.32M
EPS	—	1.934
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	125.15M
EPS	—	7.612
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	134.57M
EPS	—	8.23

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities at least $9.0M in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations increased from $7.2M to $9.0M.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $9.0M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $9.235M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.0M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20269,235,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Dividend per share at least $0.34 in 2026-Q1	Dividends per share rose from $0.32 to $0.34, showing steady shareholder returns.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.34 in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.34. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4a26171a-8d8a-44ff-94f0-72e3d167edfd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 supplied transcript quarters. The quarterly dividend increased from $0.34 per share to $0.36 per share, and the August announcement described the increase as 5.9% over the prior quarterly dividend. The announced increase is substantive delivery on the continuing dividend focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income growth to at least $9.2M in 2026-Q1	Chemung Financial grows net income from $6.0M to $9.2M in one year.	Intact	net income falls below $9.2M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $8.81M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.2M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20268,810,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4a26171a-8d8a-44ff-94f0-72e3d167edfd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to at least $11.8M in 2026-Q1	Operating income rose from $7.7M to $11.8M.	Intact	operating income falls below $11.8M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Operating income: $-11.841M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.8M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-11,841,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	1
2026-06-01	1	1
2026-07-01	1	1
2026-08-01	1	1
2026-09-01	3	1
2026-10-01	3	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

D.A. DavidsonSep 28

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$52.25$104.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities at least $9.0M in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $9.235M
Dividend per share at least $0.34 in 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $0.34 per share
Net income growth to at least $9.2M in 2026-Q1Net income: $8.81M
Operating income growth to at least $11.8M in 2026-Q1Operating income: $-11.841M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Chemung Financial Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CHMG is a smaller-cap bank with a multi-year thesis tied to commercial lending growth and stronger balance-sheet earnings. The thesis state is intact, though the latest results shifted the signal to mixed and momentum weakened.

What's priced into Chemung Financial Corp.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.23 peer premium, while the expectations gap is close to aligned. The priced-in evidence describes fragility as low, so the premium appears supported by current expectations rather than a broad combination of weak execution and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term execution is mixed: third-quarter net interest income and net interest margin improved year over year, while annualized commercial loan growth eased from the prior quarter. A fresh earnings miss and recent declines in company momentum make the next guidance update important; the sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What Chemung Financial Corp. hinges on

The thesis depends on CHMG sustaining commercial loan growth and improving funding efficiency without cutting guidance. Rate cuts would weigh on the sector under the stated scenario, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.