Reading CHCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHCO free→Reading CHCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHCO free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $128.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $128 CHCO trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $110 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 16% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.23 → $2.22 (-0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$186.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,175.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets could mean worse credit quality. This poses a risk to earnings.
Confirms:Nonperforming assets ratio exceeds 0.30% at the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Nonperforming assets ratio remains below 0.30% at the end of Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Appointment of Certain Officers. On May 27, 2026, City Holding Company (the “Company”) announced that David L. Bumgarner, age 61, the Company’s current Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will assume the title of Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective as of the close of business on…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHCO City Holding Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Emphasize strong loan growth and maintain credit quality stability.
Ensure the company remains well-capitalized to support growth and shareholder value.
Why it matters: A big drop in net interest income could mean lower loan yields. This may hurt profits.
Confirms:Q2 net interest income decreases more than $1.2 million from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net interest income stays the same or goes up compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Stronger loan growth shows the company is managing credit quality and demand well.
Confirms:Total loans increase by more than $45 million from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Total loans decrease or grow less than $45 million from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend amount shows how much management trusts future earnings and cash flow.
Confirms one read:Dividend declared is higher than $0.87 per share.
Confirms the other:Dividend declared is lower than $0.87 per share.
Other Events. On May 27, 2026, the Board of Directors of City Holding Company, declared a dividend of $0.87 per common share for shareholders of record as of July 15, 2026 payable on July 31, 2026. Signatures Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the Undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Dated: May 28, 2026 City Holding Company By: /s/ David L. Bumgarner David L. Bumgarner Senior Execut…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Appointment of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, City Holding Company (the “Company”) announced that Michael “Tim” T. Quinlan, Jr., age 57, the Company’s current Executive Vice President, Retail Banking, will assume the role of President of City National Bank of West Virginia (the “Bank”) effective as of the close of business on April 29, 20…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, City Holding Company ("the Company") issued a news release, attached as Exhibit 99.1, announcing the Company's earnings results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference is the news release issued by the Company. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Election of Directors On April 29, 2026, City Holding Company (“the Company”) issued a news release, attached as Exhibit 99.1, announcing election of B. Scott Raynes to its Board of Directors (“Board”) at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. There is no arrangement or understanding with any person pursuant to which Mr. Raynes was elected as…