City Holding Company (CHCO)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$142.01-0.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge City Holding Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	83.83M
EPS	—	2.37
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	328.36M
EPS	—	9.278
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	339.12M
EPS	—	9.661

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain tangible equity ratio near 9.8%	It keeps strong capital with a tangible equity ratio near 9.8%.	Intact	tangible equity ratio falls below 9.8%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Dividend payments at or above $0.87 per share	The company pays consistent dividends around $0.87 per share.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.87 per share	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS grows to at least $9.05 in FY26	City Holding Company grows earnings steadily with about $9.05 EPS in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $9.05 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.05 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20262.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5ace8814-47b7-43b3-ae98-50b9b88161aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$9.48 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.48	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$9.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$9.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-07-28	$9.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$9.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-07-31	$9.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$9.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-08	$9.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$9.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-11	$9.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	5	0
2026-06-01	0	5	0
2026-07-01	0	5	0
2026-08-01	0	5	0
2026-09-01	0	5	0
2026-10-01	0	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain tangible equity ratio near 9.8%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Dividend payments at or above $0.87 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
EPS grows to at least $9.05 in FY26Diluted EPS: $2.35 per share

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-8.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

City Holding Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CHCO is a regional bank with a durable-premium profile, but its recent fundamentals have been mixed rather than consistently strong. The long-term thesis is on watch: its signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, while performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into City Holding Company

The shares are tagged as stretched and trade at a notable premium versus peers, with a durable premium identified as the main driver. The expectations gap is positive, but confidence in that estimate is low, so the evidence on what the market already assumes is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, loan balances may remain uneven: they rose in 2025-Q3, fell in 2026-Q1, and rose modestly in 2026-Q2, while nonperforming assets stayed around 0.24%-0.32%. Capital remains strong, and the dividend rose 15% in 2026-Q3; however, recent performance is below the industry cohort, and the snapshot notes a pattern of misses despite a July earnings beat.

What City Holding Company hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on management sustaining loan growth without weakening credit quality, while keeping capital levels strong. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and rate cuts from the current 3.88%; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.