Reading CDXS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDXS free→Reading CDXS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDXS free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CDXS is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 79% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern often occurs when recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.49 CDXS trades at 2× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 79% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.59x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.15 → $-0.12 (+20.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$359.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$744.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,057.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into financial health and future guidance. This can impact stock performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth or better margins than before.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows lower revenue or worse margins than before.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CDXS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CDXS Codexis, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Codexis aims to achieve its 2026 revenue guidance range of $72 million to $76 million.
Codexis is focused on improving its operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Codexis aims to enhance its cash flow from operations, which has been negative.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could indicate a positive shift in the healthcare sector. This would benefit Codexis.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up to nearly 10% each year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down to below 10% each year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 8, 2026, Dennis Wolf notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Codexis, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign from the Board, effective immediately. In connection with his resignation from the Board, Mr. Wolf also resigned from his positions as a member of the Audit Committee and the Compensation Committee of the Board, eff…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director, President and Chief Executive Officer On November 5, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company, upon the recommendation of the Board’s Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, appointed Alison Moore, Ph.D., as a Class III director of the Board and as the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Com…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.