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COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$33.94+0.38%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CDP is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Office
- Market cap
- $3.90B
- Employees
- 430
- IPO date
- 1997-08-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$37.81consensus
Range $30.16 – $38.00
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$44.02consensus
Range $42.64 – $53.99
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $34 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $38 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $33–$38. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.9x
peer 14.5x · own history 22.1x
Premium
1.7x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-11%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$38.01
range $30.07 – $40.59
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
54th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
58th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral1 analysts, 63% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.32 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.4% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$70.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$150.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,072.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for changes in debt levels
Why it matters: Debt levels affect financial stability. Rising debt may signal risk, while stable debt supports growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Total debt decreases below $2.5 billion.
Disproves:Total debt increases above $2.8 billion.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CDP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CDP and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like BXP, ARE, and VNO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting CDP and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CDP beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +6% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BXP, ARE, and VNO start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping CDP and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CDP and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-271mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026, COPT Defense Properties (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026 and, in connection with this release, is making available certain supplemental information pertaining to its properties and operations. The earnings release and supplemental information are included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and are incorporated herein by reference. The information included he…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.