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Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$38.38+0.04%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence KRC's outlook. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Office
- Market cap
- $4.51B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1997-03-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$23.11consensus
Range $16.93 – $33.69
vs price: +65% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$30.90consensus
Range $20.59 – $41.21
vs price: +23% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $38, KRC's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 50× p/e (3.6× the 14× p/e peer median, and 2.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~64% near-term growth vs our ~-2% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $23 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $29–$40. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
50.5x
peer 14.0x · own history 24.5x
Premium
3.6x peer
2.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
64%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$23.35
range $16.89 – $34.19
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
77th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
65th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +38.0% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.16 (+38.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$269.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,531.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for occupancy rates improving in Q2
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates show stronger demand for Kilroy's properties. This can lead to better revenue.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Portfolio occupancy will be above 80% by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Portfolio occupancy will stay below 76% by the end of Q2 2026.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KRC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for KRC and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like BXP, ARE, and VNO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting KRC and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If KRC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-27), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like BXP, ARE, and VNO start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping KRC and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If KRC misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1929d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Kilroy Realty Corporation (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) on May 19, 2026. At the Annual Meeting, the stockholders of the Company approved an amended and restated Kilroy Realty 2006 Incentive Award Plan (the “Plan”). The amended and restated Plan reflects an increase in the limit on the aggregate…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.