Reading VNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNO free→Reading VNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VNO free→NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while management's recent track record has been steady and capital-friendly. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include potential changes in interest rates and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 VNO trades at 10× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $33–$43. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.01 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$174.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$356.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,123.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues to struggle after the Q1 miss.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings report shows a net loss greater than $22.8 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings report shows a net income or a smaller loss.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Acquisition of Park Avenue Plaza
Acquisition aligns with growth strategy and enhances portfolio.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Vornado Realty Trust (the “Company”), the general partner of Vornado Realty L.P., issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. That press release referred to supplemental data that is available on the Company’s website. That press release and the supplemental data are attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference here…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$33.00 – $43.00 (median $36.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Office REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VNO Vornado Realty Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BXP BXP, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HPP Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CUZ Cousins Properties | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Vornado announced a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $300 million in buybacks.
Vornado agreed to purchase a 49% interest in Park Avenue Plaza at a valuation of $1.1 billion.
Vornado completed several refinancing activities to optimize its debt structure.
Why it matters: CPI changes can impact interest rates and consumer spending. This affects real estate demand and Vornado's performance.
Confirms one read:CPI increases by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI decreases or stays flat month over month.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can help stock price. They also show that management is confident.
Confirms:Management says they finished or made good progress on the $300 million buyback plan.
Disproves:No big share buybacks happen in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Refinancing can change interest costs and cash flow.
Confirms one read:Management says they got new loans with lower interest rates.
Confirms the other:Management says interest rates are higher on the new loans.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can recover from the recent miss. A strong performance could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 earnings exceed analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 earnings miss expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the real estate sector. This would benefit Vornado's performance.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key for growth and could impact future earnings.
Confirms:The acquisition closes successfully by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:The acquisition is delayed or falls through.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 7, 2026, Vornado Realty Trust (the “Company”) furnished its Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2025 on Form ARS (the "Annual Report") to the Securities and Exchange Commission. A copy of the Chairman’s Letter, which was included with the Annual Report, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS The Chairman’s Letter contains forward-looking statements as such term is defined in Section 27…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026, Vornado Realty Trust (the “Company”), the general partner of Vornado Realty L.P., issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. That press release referred to supplemental data that is available on the Company’s website. That press release and the supplemental data are attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by referenc…