Reading HIW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HIW free→
Highwoods Properties (HIW)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$29.48-1.22%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with HIW trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Office
- Market cap
- $3.35B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$33.67consensus
Range $11.17 – $42.75
vs price: -12% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$42.39consensus
Range $32.67 – $46.74
vs price: -30% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $29, HIW's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 57× p/e (3.9× the 14× p/e peer median, and 2.6× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-10% near-term growth vs our ~1% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $33 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $25–$29. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
56.7x
peer 14.5x · own history 21.5x
Premium
3.9x peer
2.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-10%
our forecast 1%
Our fair value
$32.64
range $11.17 – $41.02
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
66th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
82nd pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -5.9% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.16 (-5.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$239.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,401.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Highwoods' next earnings report on July 28
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on financial health and performance. It is a key event for investors to assess the company's outlook.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better numbers. This includes revenue and occupancy rates.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows lower numbers. This includes revenue and occupancy rates.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HIW yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for HIW and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like BXP, ARE, and VNO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting HIW and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HIW beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +30% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BXP, ARE, and VNO start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping HIW and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits HIW and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0413d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 3, 2026, we modified our $150.0 million unsecured bank term loan to extend the maturity date from May 2027 to June 2029. The term can be extended for two additional years at our option assuming no defaults have occurred. The interest rate is now SOFR plus 90 basis points on our newly extended $150 million term loan, SOFR plus 95 basis points on our $200 million term loan and SOFR plus 85 basis points on our $750 million unsecured revolving c…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+5.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.