COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-09-09
$35.13-0.90%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - OfficeSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
COPT Defense Properties serves defense contractors with stable, long-term leases. Revenue grew from $187.9M to $200.6M in one year. Net income rose from $36.2M to $40.1M, showing steady profit growth. The company benefits from strong defense spending outlooks.
Growth could slow if defense budgets tighten. Operating income gains are modest and could stall. The stock trades at a premium to peers, risking multiple contraction if growth disappoints.
The market prices in about 4% revenue growth and values shares roughly 9% above our fair value near $33. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, reflecting caution on growth and margins.
Breaks if: Net income falls below $36.2M in any quarter
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $36.0M in any quarter
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $187.9M in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, long-term bet in the Real Estate sector. The current thesis state is weakened due to recent performance dropping within its industry, despite management's focus on revenue and income growth.
The valuation suggests that CDP is priced cheaply compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. The market appears to have priced in some level of fragility, but recent performance has not triggered significant concern.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue, operating income, and net income, showing positive trends in these areas. However, the near-term risk remains moderate, with a low probability of missing expectations.
The thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector bellwethers like BXP, ARE, and VNO. Positive developments in these areas could provide a tailwind, while negative trends could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. Analysts expect lower funds from operations per share due to increased share count from exchangeable notes. The market backdrop has also deteriorated, with sector trends working against CDP.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the 1-3 year view, CDP's performance will depend on management's execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.