Reading CCB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $71 CCB trades at 22× p/e — 1.8× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $60 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.23 → $1.00 (-18.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$130.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$481.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,299.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence fell. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk rose, suggesting an elevated level of uncertainty. Valuation remained expensive, as peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice can change interest rates and lending rules. This impacts Coastal's profits.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CCB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026 Coastal Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”). The Press Release is “furnished” as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K and the information provided in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CCB Coastal Financial Corp/WA | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | full | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding Banking-as-a-Service programs by acquiring assets and deposits from Evolve Bank & Trust.
Continue growth by scaling existing programs and introducing new products, leveraging BaaS experience.
Focus on improving earnings performance following recent earnings misses.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This could hurt Coastal's loan results.
Confirms:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims stay below 300,000.
Why it matters: A drop below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Coastal's growth outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 12% year over year.
Regulation FD Disclosure Coastal Community Bank, a Washington state-chartered commercial bank (the “Bank”) and a wholly owned subsidiary of Coastal Financial Corporation, a Washington corporation, entered into a non-binding term sheet with Evolve Bank & Trust (“Evolve”) setting forth non-binding terms related to a diverse set of banking-as-a-service programs presently overseen and operated by Evolve (each an “Evolve Program”) that the Bank may acquire the assets and deposits of. The Bank inte…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 11, 2026, Coastal Financial Corporation (the “Company”) appointed Jeffrey M. Chapman to the Company’s Board of Directors (the "Board"), effective March 11, 2026. Mr. Chapman is a seasoned financial technology executive and business leader with more than 25 years of experience in banking technology, digital transformation, payments, and data…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026 Coastal Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the “Press Release”). The Press Release is “furnished” as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K and the information provided in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 29, 2025 Coastal Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the “Press Release”). The Press Release is “furnished” as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K and the information provided in