Coastal Financial Corp/WA (CCB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$45.22+0.71%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Coastal Financial Corp/WA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	168.55M
EPS	—	1.141
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	629.06M
EPS	—	1.227
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	740.97M
EPS	—	5.44

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful expansion of Banking-as-a-Service via acquisitions	It is expanding Banking-as-a-Service through acquisitions like Evolve Bank.	Improving	No material progress or setbacks in BaaS acquisitions by end 2026	Qualitative: Bluevine acquisition completed Sep 2026 Bluevine acquisition completed Sep 28, 2026; CFO departure and earnings misses noted in Q1/Q2 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Loans receivable grew from $3.86B in 2026-Q1 to $4.21B in 2026-Q2 (+9.0%), reflecting growth in BaaS programs and partner expansion. Management's acquisition plans and partner onboarding align with this growth trajectory, delivering on the stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stabilize or improve net income above $12M	A primary condition in Coastal Financial Corp/WA's published investment case. The stated target is net income >= $12M.	Broken	Net income falls below $12M for two consecutive quarters	Net income: $-42.105M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $12M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-42,105,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 77b0e250-81fc-493d-aa62-599462cffe86. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to at least $111.7M by 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Coastal Financial Corp/WA's published investment case. The stated target is >= $111.7M revenue.	Broken	Revenue falls below $102M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Revenue: $118.554M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $111.7M revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026118,554,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 77b0e250-81fc-493d-aa62-599462cffe86. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. BaaS program income grew by $1.1M (10.3%) and loans receivable increased by $348.9M (9.0%) from 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q2, driven by product expansion and scaling partner programs. The financials show delivering progress consistent with management's stated growth focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	4	0	0
2026-07-01	5	0	0
2026-08-01	5	0	0
2026-09-01	4	0	0
2026-10-01	4	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stabilize or improve net income above $12MPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth to at least $111.7M by 2026-Q1Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Coastal Financial Corp/WA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CCB is a growth-oriented financial business built around banking-as-a-service (BaaS), which provides banking services through partner companies. Its multi-year view is intact, but confidence is low: recent performance is strong while risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Coastal Financial Corp/WA

The valuation is above peers, and the pricing assessment is tagged as justified, with no fragility signals. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, though the negative expectations gap points to room for disappointment if execution weakens.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, growth has continued: loans receivable rose 9% from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and BaaS program income also increased. Credit measures improved year over year, but consecutive earnings misses and an elevated estimated miss risk make the next quarter uncertain; the financial sector is also facing a headwind.

What Coastal Financial Corp/WA hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued partner and product expansion, alongside better credit quality. A guidance cut or lower interest rates would add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.