Reading CBSH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBSH free→Reading CBSH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBSH free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CBSH trading above typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $54.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for CBSH right now, so treat our $34 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 59% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.02 → $1.04 (+2.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$200.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,340.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in earnings per share may show less profit. This could happen due to rising costs.
Confirms:Earnings per share reported below $0.96 for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Earnings per share reported above $0.96 for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CBSH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (b) Mr. Benjamin F. Rassieur, III retired from the Board of Directors of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (“Company”) effective May 7th, 2026, due to the mandatory retirement requirements of the Company. Mr. Rassieur had been a Board member since 1997 and was a member and former committee chairman of the Audit and Risk Committee. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the r…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CBSH Commerce Bancshares | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has increased the number of shares that may be repurchased through its share repurchase program.
The company aims to maintain strong operating income levels.
Why it matters: A big increase may show higher credit risk. This could hurt profits.
Confirms:Allowance for credit losses was over $198.6 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Allowance for credit losses reported at or below $198.6 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in net interest income may mean pressure on profits. This is due to rising costs.
Confirms:Net interest income reported below $299.8 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net interest income reported above $299.8 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in trust fees shows that FineMark is doing well. There is demand for wealth management.
Confirms:Trust fees grow more than 25% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Trust fees grow less than 25% year over year in Q2 2026.
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section. Furthermore, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibits, shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the filings of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. All information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K is available on the Company’s…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (c) The Board of Directors of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (“Company”) approved the Company's appointment of Steven A. Brandjord in the role of Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 15, 2026. Mr. Brandjord's appointment was previously announced in a current report on Form 8-K dated March 30, 2026.
Other Events On April 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Board of Directors' authorization of an increase in the number of shares that may be repurchased through its share repurchase program. The Board authorized the Company to repurchase, in combination with the amount remaining from the prior authorization on October 31, 2025, up to 7,500,000 total shares of the Company’s common stock through its repurchase program. A copy of the press release announcing this share…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (b)(c)(e) On March 24, 2026, Paul A. Steiner, the Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”), informed the Company of his decision to resign from his position to pursue other opportunities. Mr. Steiner’s decision is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the C…