Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$56.07-0.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Commerce Bancshares’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.59 → 4.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	500.63M
EPS	—	1.073
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	497.58M
EPS	—	1.077
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.98B
EPS	—	4.24
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.05B
EPS	—	4.638

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS near $4.17 in FY26	A primary condition in Commerce Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is 4.17 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.00 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 4.17 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 5, 20261.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ace54d71-d358-40db-98b9-00c0b398dc1d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or grow operating income above $185 million next quarter	Operating income rose to $185 million in Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below $167 million next quarter	Operating income: $205.944M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=185252000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026205,944,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase share repurchase authorization	A supporting condition in Commerce Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is Increase authorization as stated in 2026.	Intact	No increase or reduction in buyback authorization	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.64

$4.54 → $4.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.05B

$2.05B → $2.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-07-25	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-07-26	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-07-27	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-07-28	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-07-29	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-07-30	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-07-31	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-01	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-03	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-04	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-05	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-06	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-07	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-08	$4.54	$2,053,175,190	9 / 7
2026-08-09	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-10	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-11	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-12	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-13	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-14	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-15	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-16	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-17	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-18	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-19	$4.54	$2,053,175,206	8 / 6
2026-08-20	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-21	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-22	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-23	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-24	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-25	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-26	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-27	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-28	$4.59	$2,061,514,620	8 / 6
2026-08-29	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	8 / 6
2026-08-30	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	8 / 6
2026-08-31	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-01	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-02	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-03	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-04	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-05	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-06	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-07	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-08	$4.58	$2,059,212,793	9 / 6
2026-09-09	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-10	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-11	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-12	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-13	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-14	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-15	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-16	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-17	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-18	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-19	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-20	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-21	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-22	$4.58	$2,060,041,886	9 / 6
2026-09-23	$4.59	$2,062,654,387	9 / 6
2026-09-24	$4.59	$2,062,654,387	9 / 6
2026-09-25	$4.59	$2,062,654,387	9 / 6
2026-09-26	$4.59	$2,062,654,387	9 / 6
2026-09-27	$4.59	$2,062,654,387	9 / 6
2026-09-28	$4.59	$2,062,654,387	9 / 6
2026-09-29	$4.59	$2,065,428,502	9 / 6
2026-09-30	$4.59	$2,065,428,502	9 / 6
2026-10-01	$4.58	$2,061,391,001	9 / 6
2026-10-02	$4.58	$2,061,391,001	9 / 6
2026-10-03	$4.58	$2,061,391,001	9 / 6
2026-10-04	$4.58	$2,061,391,001	9 / 6
2026-10-05	$4.58	$2,061,391,001	9 / 6
2026-10-06	$4.58	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-07	$4.62	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-08	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-09	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-10	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-11	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-12	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-13	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-14	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-15	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-16	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-17	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-18	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-19	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-20	$4.64	$2,059,888,626	9 / 6
2026-10-21	$4.64	$2,054,330,209	9 / 6
2026-10-22	$4.64	$2,054,330,209	9 / 6
2026-10-23	$4.64	$2,052,027,334	9 / 6
2026-10-24	$4.64	$2,052,027,334	9 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	7
2026-06-01	1	7
2026-07-01	1	8
2026-08-01	1	9
2026-09-01	2	9
2026-10-01	2	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 21 · prior Jul 17

$64.00 → $62.00-3.1%

Piper SandlerOct 21 · prior Jul 17

$66.00 → $60.50-8.3%

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Aug 10

$63.00 → $61.00-3.2%

Morgan StanleySep 28 · prior Sep 8

$76.00 → $77.00+1.3%

$0$42.35$84.70

1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS near $4.17 in FY26Diluted EPS: $1.10 per share
Maintain or grow operating income above $185 million next quarterOperating income: $205.944M
Increase share repurchase authorizationQualitative condition

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Commerce Bancshares outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CBSH is a relatively lower-risk financial company with robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, and its signal recently improved from mildly favorable to favorable, though management execution and recent financial performance remain neutral.

What's priced into Commerce Bancshares

The valuation signal is described as justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations. The expectations-gap measure is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale or what the market specifically assumes, so the expectations picture is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, two recent earnings beats and performance in the top half of its industry support the view that the business setup remains intact. Miss risk is described as low, though recent peer misses and CBSH’s history of a deep miss are reasons for caution. Over the multi-year view, disciplined capital management, profitability, and diversified fee revenue remain priorities to watch.

What Commerce Bancshares hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the near-term thesis, and rate cuts from the current level could add pressure to the financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. These scenarios make guidance, interest rates, and sector results the main swing factors.