Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$58.09-0.31%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Commerce Bancshares grew revenue 11% last year. Operating income rose to $185 million in Q1. The company is buying back more shares. Analysts expect earnings per share near $4.17 this year.
Earnings guidance is soft at $0.96 next quarter. Revenue growth could slow from 23% expected. New leadership changes may disrupt execution.
The price is about 25% above our fair value near $47. Analysts expect 23% revenue growth, which the market reflects.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.00 in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $167 million next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on disciplined capital management and profitability. The current thesis state is watchful, as recent performance has improved but remains sensitive to sector dynamics.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below the average. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.
Management is on track with priorities such as maintaining strong operating income and growing fee revenue streams. Recent financial results show positive trends, but the company’s quality has decreased recently, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. Positive earnings from these companies could support CBSH, while any negative guidance could lead to a decline in momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The company aims to maintain strong operating income levels.
Breaks if: No increase or reduction in buyback authorization
The company has increased the number of shares that may be repurchased through its share repurchase program.
The outlook for CBSH over the next 1 to 3 years is cautiously optimistic, with strong management execution and sector support being key factors. Not investment advice.