Reading CAC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAC free→Reading CAC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If CAC cuts guidance on the next call, that could negatively impact the stock. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $52 CAC trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.33 → $1.29 (-3.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,678.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This can also change Camden's lending rates. Changes may affect how much money Camden makes.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CAC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, William H. Martel, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of Camden National Corporation (the "Company"), provided notice of his intention to retire from his position, effective July 31, 2026.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CAC Camden National Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Camden National Corp. has authorized the repurchase of up to 850,000 shares, representing about 5% of its outstanding shares.
Camden National Corp. continues to declare a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share.
Camden National Corp. aims to position itself for an outstanding 2026 and a brighter future.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Camden's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact Camden's lending and deposit growth. Strong sales may boost confidence.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Camden National Corporation (the “Company” or “Camden”) issued a press release on April 28, 2026 announcing earnings for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. This information is being furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, and the information contained therein shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liab…
Other Events. Camden National Corporation issued a press release on March 31, 2026, declaring a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share payable on April 30, 2026 to its shareholders of record on April 15, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Camden National Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release on January 27, 2026 announcing earnings for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. This information is being furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, and the information contained therein shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the li…
Other Events. On January 8, 2026, Camden National Corporation (the "Company") announced that the board of directors has authorized the purchase of up to 850,000 shares of the Company's common stock, representing approximately 5.0% of the Company's issued and outstanding shares of common stock as of December 31, 2025. The new repurchase program became effective on January 7, 2026. The timing and exact amount of common stock repurchased under the repurchase program will depend on various factor…