Reading BWB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWB free→Reading BWB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from BWB and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 BWB trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.45 (-1.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$283.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,562.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report shows how well the company is doing. It also shows market trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) is higher than what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BWB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
R esults of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results as of and for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this item of this Form 8-K, and the related exhibits, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BWB Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving profitable growth and gaining market share through strategic initiatives.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue decreased from $73.3M in 2025-Q4 to $69.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in driving profitable growth and gaining market share so far.
“As we look ahead to 2026, we are focused on driving profitable growth, gaining market share.”
Continue leveraging technology investments to support future growth initiatives.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. No specific financial metrics provided to assess the impact of technology investments on growth. The trajectory remains unclear due to lack of detailed financial evidence.
“Continuing to leverage technology investments to support future growth.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could signal a weakening trend in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much consumers spend. It also reflects the economy's health.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or increase less than 0.5% month over month.
Other Events . On April 21, 2026, in its 2026 first quarter earnings release, the Company announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 5.875% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A (“Series A Preferred Stock”). The quarterly cash dividend of $36.72 per share, equivalent to $0.3672 per depository share, each representing a 1/100 th interest in a share of the Series A Preferred Stock (Nasdaq: BWBBP), is payable on June 1, 2026, to shareholders…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 27, 2026, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc., a Minnesota corporation (the “Company”), and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Bridgewater Bank, a Minnesota state-chartered bank (the “Bank”), entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Piper Sandler & Co., as distribution agent (the “Distribution Agent”), pursuant to which the Company may issue and sell from time to time through the Distribution Agent, shares of the Company's…
R esults of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results as of and for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this item of this Form 8-K, and the related exhibits, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of S…
Other Events . On January 27, 2026, in its 2025 fourth quarter earnings release, the Company announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend on its 5.875% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A (“Series A Preferred Stock”). The quarterly cash dividend of $36.72 per share, equivalent to $0.3672 per depository share, each representing a 1/100 th interest in a share of the Series A Preferred Stock (Nasdaq: BWBBP), is payable on March 2, 2026, to sharehold…