Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$20.58-0.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	44.7M
EPS	—	0.475
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	42.73M
EPS	—	0.473
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	171.97M
EPS	—	1.823
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	184.7M
EPS	—	2.04

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain active share buyback program	The company supports growth through share buybacks and steady dividends.	Intact	Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced	Buyback active ($12.4M remaining) Board extended buyback expiration to Aug 2027; $12.4M authorization remains as of Aug 25, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS grows to at least $1.49-$1.52 in 2026	A primary condition in Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.49 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.49 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.49 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5f5a863f-89ae-407f-99df-dedae0ff15e7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Gross loans increased by $80.4 million in 2026-Q3, and net income was $15.0 million in 2026-Q3 versus $11.6 million in 2025-Q3. Loan growth and higher net income indicate delivery on the stated growth focus this quarter. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Management drives profitable growth and market share	A primary condition in Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Improved progress score above 50%.	Intact	Progress score remains below 47%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue stabilizes near $70M quarterly	A primary condition in Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=69.9 million USD per quarter.	Broken	quarterly revenue falls below $69.9M	Revenue: $72.656M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=69.9 million USD per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 202672,656,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5f5a863f-89ae-407f-99df-dedae0ff15e7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Gross loans increased by $80.4 million in 2026-Q3, and net income was $15.0 million in 2026-Q3 versus $11.6 million in 2025-Q3. Loan growth and higher net income indicate delivery on the stated growth focus this quarter. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	0
2026-10-01	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows to at least $1.49-$1.52 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.45 per share
Management drives profitable growth and market shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue stabilizes near $70M quarterlyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BWB is a smaller-cap financial company with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent momentum has improved, but management execution is volatile and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.

BWB is described as cheap versus peers, with a measured expectations gap and high model confidence. The evidence labels fragility as low and unjustified, meaning weak execution is not fully reflected in the current setup; it does not establish that all business risks are priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest quarter showed gross loan growth and higher net income, while the efficiency ratio improved. Credit signals were mixed: nonperforming assets eased, but net loan charge-offs rose, and expenses were higher year over year. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though smaller-company status and recent peer misses are noted.

What Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued profitable loan growth, sound credit underwriting, and better expense discipline. A guidance cut on the next call or rate cuts from current levels are flagged as unfavorable; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers are favorable signals.