Reading BUSE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BUSE free→Reading BUSE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BUSE free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, although it has shown a capital-friendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, BUSE trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 BUSE trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 65%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.64 (+0.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$206.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,182.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can affect interest rates. Changes may impact First Busey Corp.'s lending margins.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates during the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BUSE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amendment to Equity Incentive Plan On May 20, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of First Busey Corporation (“Busey”), Busey’s stockholders, upon the recommendation of Busey’s Board of Directors, approved the First Busey Corporation Second Amended 2020 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Amended Plan”). The Amended Plan…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BUSE First Busey Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | fair | low |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Expand the share repurchase program by 4 million shares to enhance shareholder value.
Continue regular dividend payments to provide consistent returns to shareholders.
Focus on increasing earnings per share to drive shareholder value.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact First Busey Corp. negatively.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims could indicate economic weakness. This may affect First Busey Corp.'s loan performance.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims go up a lot compared to the current trend.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay the same or go down.
Other Events Amendment to Share Repurchase Program On May 20, 2026, Busey's board of directors approved an amendment to Busey’s previously adopted share repurchase program to increase the number of shares of Busey’s common stock available for repurchase by 4,000,000 shares. As of the close of business on May 20, 2026, under the amended share repurchase program, Busey is now authorized to repurchase, from time to time as Busey deems appropriate, up to a remaining number of 4,903,775 shares of…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is being “furnished” and will not, except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, be deemed “filed” by Busey for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor will any of such information or exhibits be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securit…
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, First Busey Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.515625 per depositary share on its 8.25% Fixed-Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock. The dividend is payable on June 1, 2026, to stockholders of record as of May 15, 2026. Signature Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. FIRST BUSEY CORP…
Other Events. On April 14, 2026, First Busey Corporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share on its outstanding shares of common stock. The dividend is payable on May 1, 2026, to stockholders of record as of April 24, 2026. Signature Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION Date: April 14, 2026 By: /s/ CHRIST…