First Busey Corp. (BUSE)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.33-0.98%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Busey Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.74 → 2.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	196.74M
EPS	—	0.676
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	785.43M
EPS	—	2.547
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	801.76M
EPS	—	2.74

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain regular dividend payments	A supporting condition in First Busey Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase quarterly dividend.	Intact	Dividend cut or suspension in 2026	Dividend $0.26/share vs target maintain/increase BUSE declared a $0.26 quarterly cash dividend on Oct 13, 2026, payable Oct 30, confirming continued regular payments. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS of at least $0.67 in Q1 2026	A primary condition in First Busey Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.67 USD per share.	Improving	EPS falls below $0.67 in 2026-Q1	Diluted EPS: $0.69 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.67 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20260.69 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5949da29-ed96-4995-a52d-d908d04f68c6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase share repurchase authorization by 4 million shares	The bank expands share buybacks by 4 million shares to return capital.	Intact	No increase or reduction in share repurchase authorization in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.74

$2.71 → $2.74 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.80B

$0.82B → $0.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.71	$821,531,500	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-26	$2.71	$821,531,500	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.71	$821,531,500	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.71	$821,531,500	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.71	$821,531,500	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.71	$821,531,500	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.71	$821,531,500	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.72	$809,731,500	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.72	$809,731,500	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.73	$799,900,670	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.73	$799,900,670	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.73	$799,900,670	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.73	$799,900,670	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$2.73	$799,900,670	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-11	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-12	$2.73	$799,900,670	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.73	$799,900,670	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.73	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.74	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.74	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$2.74	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$2.74	$802,150,667	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.74	$802,150,667	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.74	$802,150,667	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.74	$802,150,667	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.74	$802,150,667	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.74	$802,150,667	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.75	$802,950,667	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.75	$802,950,667	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.75	$802,950,667	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.75	$802,950,667	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.75	$802,950,667	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.75	$802,950,667	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.75	$802,950,667	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.74	$801,762,167	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	3
2026-07-01	4	3
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	4	3
2026-10-01	4	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS of at least $0.67 in Q1 2026Diluted EPS: $0.69 per share
Increase share repurchase authorization by 4 million sharesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Busey Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BUSE is a regional banking business with a multi-year view tied to earnings growth, profitability, and wealth-management fees. The thesis is intact this month, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into First Busey Corp.

Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low valuation fragility; the valuation measure recently declined, but the evidence does not explain why.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, adjusted diluted EPS and adjusted return on average assets improved from the first to the second quarter of 2026, while wealth-management assets and fee income also grew. Capital allocation is mixed: repurchases continued, and the capital ratio rose, but a guidance cut or lower rates would be risks; the reported near-term miss probability is low.

What First Busey Corp. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis depends on management continuing to grow earnings and profitability while expanding wealth-management fees and preserving capital. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would weaken the setup, while strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.