Reading BSRR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BSRR free→Reading BSRR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BSRR free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BSRR is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40 BSRR trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $36 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 10% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.88 → $0.89 (+0.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,680.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how Sierra Bancorp is doing financially. It will also show how the company is growing.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows stronger than expected revenue and profit growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows weaker than expected revenue and profit growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BSRR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 27, 2026, Sierra Bancorp issued a press release announcing its unaudited consolidated financial results for the three-month period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BSRR Sierra Bancorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.26 in 2026-Q1, consistent with the previous quarter. The Board has consistently approved this dividend amount, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
“The Board approved a cash dividend of $0.26 per share, payable on May 11, 2026.”
“The Board approved a cash dividend of $0.26 per share, payable on February 17, 2026.”
Focus on achieving a 10 percent earnings per share growth in 2025.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. EPS guidance low set at $3.11 for fiscal year 2026. The company aims for a 10 percent EPS growth, but the financials show a mixed trajectory with net income slightly declining from $12.89M in 2025-Q4 to $12.52M in 2026-Q1.
“CEO: '...a 10 percent earnings per share growth in 2025.'”
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening trend in the financial sector. This could affect Sierra Bancorp's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much people spend and how banks operate. This can impact Sierra Bancorp's performance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline or growth below 0.5% month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 17, 2026, Registrant and its wholly owned subsidiary, Bank of the Sierra (collectively, the “Company”), terminated the employment of William J. Wade II, Executive Vice President & Chief Operations Officer, as part of an organizational realignment. In connection with the termination and in accordance with his employment agreement dated Jul…
Other Events. On April 23, 2026, the Board of Directors of Sierra Bancorp (the “Company”) approved a cash dividend to shareholders. The quarterly cash dividend of twenty-six cents ($0.26) per share of common stock will be payable on May 11, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 4, 2026. The press release issued by the Company in connection with the dividend is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated into this
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 2, 2026, Sierra Bancorp issued a press release announcing its unaudited consolidated financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Other Events. On January 29, 2026, the Board of Directors of Sierra Bancorp (the “Company”) approved a cash dividend to shareholders. The quarterly cash dividend of twenty-six cents ($0.26) per share of common stock will be payable on February 17, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 9, 2026. The press release issued by the Company in connection with the dividend is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated into this