Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$41.74+3.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sierra Bancorp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	39.45M
EPS	—	0.922
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	156.63M
EPS	—	3.562
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	161.77M
EPS	—	3.798

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share	Sierra Bancorp keeps paying a steady quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.26 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 0.26 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f380efc-f3ab-4a34-a2cd-ec1f8087ee21. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at least $3.11 in FY26	A primary condition in Sierra Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.11 USD_PER_SHARE.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.11 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.77 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.11 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.77 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f380efc-f3ab-4a34-a2cd-ec1f8087ee21. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline no worse than -2% in next 12 months	A supporting condition in Sierra Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >= -2% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	Revenue decline exceeds -2% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.88 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.88	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$3.88	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$3.88	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$3.88	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$3.88	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$3.82	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$3.82	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	$3.82	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$3.82	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$3.82	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	$3.82	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-04	$3.82	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$3.81	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-06	$3.81	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$3.78	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$3.78	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$3.78	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-12	$3.78	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	4
2026-06-01	1	4
2026-07-01	1	4
2026-08-01	1	4
2026-09-01	1	4
2026-10-01	1	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend of $0.26 per shareDividend per share: $0.26 per share
EPS at least $3.11 in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue decline no worse than -2% in next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sierra Bancorp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BSRR is a financial-sector investment whose multi-year view depends on steady earnings, low-cost deposit growth, and its dividend. The thesis is marked intact, but confidence is low after a recent earnings miss and a shift down from medium confidence.

What's priced into Sierra Bancorp

The valuation is described as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the model and no major fragility signals. BSRR trades at a premium to peers, while the measured expectations gap is modest.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong and in the top half of the industry, while earnings quality is rated robust. Near term, a guidance cut is a key risk, and the evidence flags a quiet but meaningful chance of a miss given BSRR’s smaller size and recent peer misses. Management’s priorities around earnings growth, the dividend, and low-cost deposits remain under watch.

What Sierra Bancorp hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on execution against those management priorities and on whether recent performance holds despite sector headwinds. A guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued strong earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.