Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$40.37-0.79%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS at least $3.11 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance $1.72 vs $3.11 target.
Sierra Bancorp keeps paying a steady quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share. Earnings per share are expected to grow to at least $3.11 in 2026. The bank has shown multiple recent earnings beats and a stable capital allocation strategy. Its valuation is reasonable with a price-to-earnings ratio near peers.
Revenue is expected to decline about 2% next year, which could pressure earnings. Management changes and a fragile quality rating raise some risks. If earnings growth stalls below $3.11 per share, the bank may face challenges sustaining dividends.
The market prices in about a 2% revenue decline and values the stock slightly above our model's estimate. Our view aligns with the expectation of modest earnings growth and steady dividends, but the price reflects limited upside given these factors.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.26 in any quarter
Continue to provide a quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per share to shareholders.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
BSRR represents a durable compounder with a focus on earnings per share growth and dividend maintenance. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong financial performance and a favorable sector backdrop.
The market has a neutral valuation stance on BSRR, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that the current pricing reflects a justified valuation without significant fragility.
Management is on track to achieve its goals of EPS growth, dividend maintenance, and expanding its low-cost deposit base. Recent results show strong performance, though there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings due to the company's smaller size and history of earnings misses.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for BSRR. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact BSRR's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. This miss indicates a failure to meet expectations, which raises concerns about future performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.11 in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue decline exceeds -2% YoY
Overall, BSRR's fundamentals are solid, but the company must navigate sector dynamics and manage earnings expectations carefully. Not investment advice.