Reading BOKF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOKF free→Reading BOKF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOKF free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BOKF trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If BOKF cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $133.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $132 BOKF trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $116 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.41 → $2.46 (+2.2% / 30d). 6 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$74.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$214.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,019.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it could signal a slowdown in the sector. This would be a key indicator for BOK Financial's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth is below the median of about 15%.
Disproves:Revenue growth is above the median of about 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOKF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 20, 2026, BOK Financial Corporation (“BOK Financial”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 (“Press Release”). The full text of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1(a) to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. On April 20, 2026, in connection with the issuance of the Press Release, BOK Financial released financial information related to the three months en…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOKF BOK FINANCIAL CORP | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | low |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to increase the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on maintaining and growing net income and EPS over time.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors of BOK Financial Corporation declared a dividend on the company's common stock of 63 cents per share. The dividend will be payable on or about March 5, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 19, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 16, 2026, BOK Financial Corporation (“BOK Financial”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025 (“Press Release”). The full text of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1(a) to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. On January 16, 2026, in connection with the issuance of the Press Release, BOK Financial released financial information related to the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 20, 2025, BOK Financial Corporation (“BOK Financial”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 (“Press Release”). The full text of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1(a) to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. On October 20, 2025, in connection with the issuance of the Press Release, BOK Financial released financial information related to th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 21, 2025, BOK Financial Corporation (“BOK Financial”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 (“Press Release”). The full text of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1(a) to this report and is incorporated herein by reference. On July 21, 2025, in connection with the issuance of the Press Release, BOK Financial released financial information related to the three and…