BOK FINANCIAL CORP (BOKF)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$128.61-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BOK FINANCIAL CORP’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.77 → 10.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	577.82M
EPS	—	2.591
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	575.85M
EPS	—	2.496
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.26B
EPS	—	10.67
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.4B
EPS	—	10.756

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend growth	A supporting condition in BOK FINANCIAL CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.63 in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.57 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.63 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.63 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 20260.63 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 49610b0f-6751-4d61-ae40-16ab1c134b02. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Not stated in the supplied transcript quarters, so recurrence cannot be established from transcripts. The supplied financials show dividend per share of $0.57 in 2025-Q3 and $0.63 in 2026-Q2. That financial movement is consistent with the prior-priorities label, but the current transcript bundle provides no statement on follow-through. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain and grow net income and EPS	Net income rose from $140.9 million to $155.8 million recently.	Improving	Net income or EPS falls below $140 million or EPS below $9.17 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve cash flow from operations	A primary condition in BOK FINANCIAL CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Operating cash flow >= $0 in next 4 quarters.	Broken	Operating cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $787.356M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow >= $0 in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026787,356,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize or grow revenue	A supporting condition in BOK FINANCIAL CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= -3% for FY27.	Intact	Revenue declines more than 3% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.76

$10.65 → $10.76 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.40B

$2.41B → $2.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.65	$2,414,603,640	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$10.67	$2,416,093,990	9 / 9
2026-08-05	$10.70	$2,416,071,770	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$10.70	$2,416,071,770	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$10.70	$2,416,071,770	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$10.70	$2,416,071,770	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$10.70	$2,416,071,770	9 / 9
2026-08-11	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$10.76	$2,420,417,430	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$10.64	$2,415,994,023	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$10.73	$2,420,364,234	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$10.73	$2,420,361,879	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$10.73	$2,420,361,879	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$10.73	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$10.75	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$10.75	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$10.75	$2,422,215,691	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$10.77	$2,422,430,397	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$10.77	$2,422,430,397	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$10.77	$2,422,410,397	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$10.77	$2,422,410,397	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$10.77	$2,422,410,397	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$10.77	$2,422,410,397	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$10.77	$2,422,410,397	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$10.77	$2,422,410,397	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$10.74	$2,421,390,397	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$10.72	$2,419,610,397	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$10.72	$2,419,610,397	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$10.72	$2,419,610,397	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$10.72	$2,419,610,397	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$10.72	$2,419,610,397	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$10.72	$2,419,610,397	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$10.72	$2,419,610,397	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$10.72	$2,419,630,397	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$10.72	$2,416,176,967	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$10.75	$2,404,372,197	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$10.75	$2,404,015,984	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$10.76	$2,399,015,984	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$10.76	$2,399,015,984	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	7	0
2026-06-01	2	8	0
2026-07-01	2	9	0
2026-08-01	1	9	0
2026-09-01	1	10	1
2026-10-01	1	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 21

$141.00New observation · no comparable prior

D.A. DavidsonOct 21 · prior Oct 20

$147.00 → $145.00-1.4%

JefferiesOct 20

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Jul 22

$149.00 → $146.00-2.0%

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Aug 10

$148.00 → $135.00-8.8%

$0$82.50$165.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend growthDividend per share: $0.63 per share
Sustain and grow net income and EPSDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Improve cash flow from operationsPublished status: Broken
Stabilize or grow revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BOK FINANCIAL CORP outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a stable-management profile and a recent record of strong financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into BOK FINANCIAL CORP

Valuation appears broadly in line with peers, and the supplied pricing signal says expectations are aligned with the business rather than stretched. The expectations gap is small, so the current setup does not point to a large mismatch between market assumptions and the evidence here.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, reported loans have grown from the first to the third quarter of 2026, and BOKF recorded earnings beats in April, July, and October. Management has kept loan growth on track, while cost control is mixed: operating expenses were higher in the third quarter than the first. Near-term miss risk is marked low, but the evidence flags recent peer misses and a deep miss in BOKF’s history.

What BOK FINANCIAL CORP hinges on

The multi-year view depends in part on continued broad-based loan growth and credit discipline, alongside better control of operating costs. Near term, a guidance cut or interest-rate cuts would be adverse risks; continued strength from financial-sector peers would support momentum.