Reading BMRN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BMRN free→Reading BMRN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $55.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $56 BMRN trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $80 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $50–$120. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.09 → $0.96 (+1162.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 43.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,249.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows successful product launches and market growth.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BMRN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (the Company) announced financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company’s press release issued on May 4, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Form 8-K, including in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$50.00 – $120.00 (median $99.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Amicus Therapeutics to enhance growth.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
by reference. At the effective time of the Merger (the “ Effective Time ”), each share of common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of Amicus (“ Amicus Common Stock ”) issued and outstanding immediately prior to the Effective Time (other than certain excluded shares as described in the Merger Agreement) was automatically cancelled and converted into the right to receive $14.50 in cash, without interest thereon and subject to any applicable withholding of taxes. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On the Closing Date, in connection with the Merger, the Company entered into a Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”), by and among the Company, as borrower, the lenders and issuing banks from time to time party thereto, and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent (in such capacities, the “ Administrative Agent ” and the “ Collateral Agent ,” respectivel…
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on December 19, 2025, BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (“ BioMarin ”) and Lynx Merger Sub 1, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of BioMarin (“ Merger Sub ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (“ Amicus ”), providing for the merger of Merger Sub with and into Amicus (the “ Merger ”), with Amicus surviving the Merger as a wholly owned subsidiary of BioMarin. On April 23, 2026, the Ministry of Eco…