Reading BMRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BMRC free→Reading BMRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BMRC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact BMRC's performance compared to sector peers that are below typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 BMRC trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.56 → $0.52 (-8.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$69.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$229.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,485.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Bank of Marin's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BMRC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026, Bank of Marin Bancorp, "Bancorp" (Nasdaq: BMRC), parent company of Bank of Marin, released its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1. The press release will be available on Bank of Marin's website at http://www.bankofmarin.com under “Investor Relations/News & Market Data/Press Releases" and "Presentations” on April 27, 2026. Section 7 - Regulation FD
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BMRC Bank of Marin Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue the consistent quarterly dividend payment of $0.25 per share.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company has consistently maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, as evidenced by the board's approval in each quarter. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with no change in the dividend amount over the period.
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on May 14, 2026.”
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on February 12, 2026.”
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share.”
“Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share.”
Focus on maintaining positive net income across quarters.
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Net income increased from $4.88 million in 2025-Q1 to $8.51 million in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trajectory. The company has consistently achieved positive net income, indicating effective management of growth priorities.
Maintain positive operating income to support financial stability.
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $6.48 million in 2025-Q1 to $11.60 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a positive trend. The company has consistently maintained positive operating income, supporting its financial stability goals.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects how much banks earn and lend.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates, which could boost bank margins.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates, which may compress bank margins.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This can lower loan demand and credit quality.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims are much higher than usual.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay the same or go down.
Other Events In the press release, Bancorp announced that on April 23, 2026, its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividen d of $ 0.25 p er share. The cash dividend is payable on May 14, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 7, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (c) Appointment of Principal Accounting Officer. Effective April 2, Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ: BMRC) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Bank of Marin (collectively the “Company”), appointed Susan Ramirez, First Vice President and Controller, age 45, to also serve as the Company’s Principal Accounting Officer. Ms. Ramirez joined the Company in May…
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review. (a) Restatement of Historical Financial Results On February 23, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Bank of Marin Bancorp (the “Company”), based on the recommendation of, and after consultation with, the Board’s Audit Committee, the Company’s management and the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, Baker Tilly, concluded that the Company’s previously issue…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 26, 2026, Bank of Marin Bancorp, "Bancorp" (Nasdaq: BMRC), parent company of Bank of Marin, released its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.1. Section 8 - Other Events
“Net income for 2026-Q1 was $8.51 million.”
“Net income for 2025-Q3 was $7.53 million.”
“Net income for 2025-Q1 was $4.88 million.”
“Operating income for 2026-Q1 was $11.60 million.”
“Operating income for 2025-Q3 was $9.61 million.”
“Operating income for 2025-Q1 was $6.48 million.”