Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$27.11-0.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bank of Marin Bancorp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.42 → 2.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	35.8M
EPS	—	0.6
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	138.82M
EPS	—	2.277
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	146.91M
EPS	—	2.415

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income at or above $8.5 million per quarter	Bank of Marin Bancorp is improving its profits, with net income rising to $8.51 million in 2026-Q1.	Improving	net income falls below $8.5 million in any quarter	Net income: $9.246M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.5 million USD quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20269,246,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 347d7872-7f86-4971-8ab3-69964baafdcd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at or above $11.6 million per quarter	Operating income also grew to $11.6 million, showing better financial health.	Intact	operating income falls below $11.6 million in any quarter	Operating income: $12.673M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.6 million USD quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202612,673,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share maintained	The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.25 per share each quarter.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.25 per share in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.25 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 8, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ee81f943-e6e4-4878-be93-b91bb9429ff2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company consistently declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. This demonstrates steady delivery on the commitment to maintain shareholder distributions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -5% annually	A primary condition in Bank of Marin Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=-5% annual revenue growth.	Intact	revenue declines more than 5% year over year in FY26	Revenue growth: 16.68% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=-5% annual revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202616.67769 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 347d7872-7f86-4971-8ab3-69964baafdcd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.42

$2.40 → $2.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-26	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-29	$2.37	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$2.37	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$2.37	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-01	$2.39	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-03	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-04	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$2.40	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.40	$147,193,600	6 / 5
2026-08-07	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.40	$147,193,600	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$2.40	$147,193,600	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$2.40	$147,193,600	6 / 5
2026-08-11	$2.40	$147,193,600	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.40	$147,193,600	6 / 5
2026-08-13	$2.40	$147,193,600	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$2.42	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	3	3
2026-07-01	3	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 1 · prior Jul 31

$30.00 → $29.00-3.3%

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income at or above $8.5 million per quarterNet income: $9.246M
Operating income at or above $11.6 million per quarterOperating income: $12.673M
Quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share maintainedDividend per share: $0.25 per share
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -5% annuallyRevenue growth: 16.68%

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bank of Marin Bancorp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a small financial company with a recovery-oriented multi-year view, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Bank of Marin Bancorp

BMRC is described as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and a justified pricing assessment. That suggests the market is not pricing in strong execution, but the evidence does not establish that the shares are broadly undervalued.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show progress: quarterly net income and diluted earnings per share increased from Q1 to Q2 2026, while net interest margin also widened. Management is delivering on its stated profitability and margin priorities, though earnings quality remains fragile and recent performance is still weak; a guidance cut is a stated risk.

What Bank of Marin Bancorp hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether balance sheet changes and expense discipline sustain positive net income and wider margins. Rate cuts could weigh on the financial sector, while continued strength among named sector peers could support sector momentum; these are scenario signals, not guarantees for BMRC.