Reading BFST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BFST free→Reading BFST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BFST free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If BFST cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 BFST trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $35 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.99x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.72 → $0.70 (-3.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$238.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,350.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can impact interest rates and lending conditions. This affects banks like Business First Bancshares.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raised interest rates. This shows a tighter monetary policy.
Confirms the other:The FOMC kept interest rates the same or lowered them. This shows a looser monetary policy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BFST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Business First Bancshares, Inc. (“Business First”), the parent company of b1BANK, issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release also announced that the Board of Directors of Business First declared a common dividend on April 23, 2026, in the amount of $0.15 per share to the common shareholders of record on May 15, 2026. The dividend is to be paid on May 29, 2026, or as soo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BFST Business First Bancshares, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive organic growth through efficient execution and thorough follow-through.
The company continues to prioritize maintaining regular dividend payments to shareholders.
The company is engaging in mergers and acquisitions to drive growth and expand its market presence.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Business First Bancshares' performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth drops below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Business First Bancshares is performing. This can impact investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better than expected results.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows worse than expected results.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information contained in
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On April 2, 2026, Business First Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Subordinated Note Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain qualified institutional buyers and accredited investors pursuant to which the Company sold and issued $85.0 million in aggregate principal amount of 6.50% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due 2036 (the “Notes”) in a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 22, 2026, Business First filed the Original Form 8-K in which it furnished a copy of the press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Original Press Release”). Business First is now filing this Amendment to furnish a revised press release (the “Revised Press Release”) to correct the record and payment dates of the quarterly preferred and common dividends which were inadvertently…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 22, 2026, Business First Bancshares, Inc. (“Business First”), the parent company of b1BANK, issued a press release announcing financial results for the year and quarter ended December 31, 2025. The release also announced that the Board of Directors of Business First declared a common dividend on January 22, 2026, in the amount of $0.15 per share to the common shareholders of record on February 15, 2026. The dividend is to be paid on Fe…