Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.80-0.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Business First Bancshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	95.63M
EPS	—	0.818
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	368.6M
EPS	—	3.008
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	394.57M
EPS	—	3.323

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or increase dividend payments, at least $0.15 per share in 2026-Q1	The company maintains dividend payments, increasing dividends per share from $0.14 to $0.15.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.14 in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 dividend per share in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a1500dea-1e86-4045-885b-b88fd80dcbb8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Maintained as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividends per common share remained steady at $0.15 in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. The board consistently declared preferred and common dividends each quarter, delivering on the commitment to maintain dividend payments. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026
EPS at least $2.79 for full year 2026	A primary condition in Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.79 EPS for FY 2026.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $2.79 for 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.70 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.79 EPS for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 31, 20260.7 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a1500dea-1e86-4045-885b-b88fd80dcbb8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
M&A activity supports growth without harming capital	A supporting condition in Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is M&A deals completed without capital strain or negative earnings impact in 2026.	Intact	M&A causes capital strain or earnings decline in 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Progressive acquisition closed in 2026-Q1 added approximately $774 million in assets; American Planning Corporation acquisition completed in 2026-Q2 expanded advisory services. Integration and synergy realization are ongoing, indicating progress consistent with management's stated M&A growth strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026
Revenue grows organically to at least $3.14M in 2026-Q1	Business First Bancshares grows revenue organically, rising from $2.64M in 2025-Q4 to $3.14M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.64M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Revenue: $3.197M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.14M revenue in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20263,197,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a1500dea-1e86-4045-885b-b88fd80dcbb8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Loans held for investment slightly decreased from $6.68B in 2026-Q1 to $6.66B in 2026-Q2; net interest margin expanded from 3.65% to 3.73%; nonperforming loans ratio improved from 1.53% to 1.26%. Management is delivering on organic growth, margin expansion, and asset quality improvement as emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 21, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.26 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.26	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	$3.28	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	5	0	0
2026-08-01	5	0	0
2026-09-01	5	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend payments, at least $0.15 per share in 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $0.15 per share
EPS at least $2.79 for full year 2026Published status: Broken
M&A activity supports growth without harming capitalQualitative condition
Revenue grows organically to at least $3.14M in 2026-Q1Revenue: $3.197M

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Business First Bancshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BFST is a regional bank with a measured growth thesis, supported by organic execution and acquisitions. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and recent performance is neutral overall.

What's priced into Business First Bancshares, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes BFST as cheap versus peers, with expectations close to the model’s baseline. Pricing is characterized as justified, with low fragility rather than a broad set of elevated risks already embedded.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are holding in the top half of the industry: net interest margin expanded and the nonperforming-loan ratio improved, while loans edged down. Management maintained the dividend and completed acquisitions, but organic growth and integration progress are mixed; sector conditions are a headwind, and guidance cuts remain a risk to watch.

What Business First Bancshares, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued margin and asset-quality progress, alongside effective integration of recent acquisitions and renewed loan growth. A guidance cut or rate cuts could add pressure, while stronger earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers would support the broader financial-sector backdrop.