Reading BCML? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCML free→Reading BCML? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BCML free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which adds to the moderate risk profile. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The stock's valuation hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 BCML trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.64 (-0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,429.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will provide insight into revenue trends and overall performance. This is crucial for future outlook.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 15% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BCML yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
OTHER EVENTS On May 22, 2026, BayCom Corp (the “Company”) issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.30 per share, payable on July 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 11, 2026.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BCML BayCom Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on maintaining stable credit quality amidst continuing demand for lending.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $343.4M in 2025-Q4 to $345.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating stable demand. Management's focus on credit quality remains consistent, with limited substantive delivery beyond stable revenue growth.
“We are optimistic that 2026 will see a continuing demand for lending and expect credit quality to remain stable.”
“We expect continued stable credit quality and improving earnings performance.”
Continue increasing the quarterly dividend, reaching $0.30 per share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.25 in 2025-Q3 to $0.30 in 2026-Q1. Management is delivering on its commitment to increase dividends, reflecting a consistent capital allocation strategy.
Focus on improving earnings performance to strengthen financial position.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Net income increased from $6.86M in 2025-Q4 to $8.18M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in earnings performance. Management's focus on improving earnings is showing positive results, aligning with their stated priority.
Why it matters: A drop below the median signals a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, BayCom Corp issued its earnings release for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Management Transition On April 7, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of BayCom Corp (the “Company”) approved a leadership transition of the Company’s senior management team as part of its ongoing commitment to the Company’s long-term strategic objectives. As described in greater detail below, the Board approved: the termination without…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 21, 2026, the Board of Directors of BayCom Corp (the “Company”), the holding company for United Business Bank (the “Bank”), appointed Michael J. Perdue as a director of the Company, effective April 22, 2026. At that time, Mr. Perdue also was appointed as a member of the Compensation Committee and Nominating Committee of the Company’s Boar…
OTHER EVENTS On February 19, 2026, BayCom Corp (the “Company”) issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.30 per share, payable on April 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 12, 2026.
“Announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.30 per share.”
“Announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.30 per share.”
“We expect continued stable credit quality and improving earnings performance to further strengthen our overall financial position.”