BayCom Corp. (BCML)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.45-4.55%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BayCom Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	26.77M
EPS	—	0.575
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	105.11M
EPS	—	2.043
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	111.03M
EPS	—	2.413

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain stable credit quality	The bank maintains stable credit quality despite market challenges.	Intact	Credit quality deteriorates materially next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Nonperforming loans were $16.7 million at Q1 end, up from $13.4 million at Q4 2025; the Q2 2026 provision for credit losses was $5.2 million, followed by $843,000 in Q3. The credit figures show mixed progress rather than consistently stable conditions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Quarterly dividend per share at or above $0.30	BayCom keeps raising its quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.30 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.30 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9be709ba-0be1-48a9-bc08-afc6c3bd36d4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 0 supplied transcript quarters; the dividend was declared at $0.30 per share in both May and August 2026. Financials show a $0.30 per-share dividend in Q1 and Q2 2026, and the August declaration maintained that level. The stated distribution is consistent, with no supplied figures establishing a broader capital-allocation trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS at or above $2.70 for FY 2026	A primary condition in BayCom Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.70 EPS.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.70 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-0.64 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.70 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-0.64 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9be709ba-0be1-48a9-bc08-afc6c3bd36d4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	3
2026-06-01	0	3
2026-07-01	0	3
2026-08-01	0	3
2026-09-01	1	3
2026-10-01	1	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain stable credit qualityQualitative condition
Quarterly dividend per share at or above $0.30Dividend per share: $0.30 per share
EPS at or above $2.70 for FY 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BayCom Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BCML is a smaller-cap financial business with a watch-stage long-term thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or steady compounder. Core relationship measures improved in Q3, but earnings quality, management execution, and recent performance are rated neutral, while risk is moderate.

What's priced into BayCom Corp.

The valuation evidence is mixed: BCML is described as cheap versus peers, yet the overall value assessment is expensive and the expectations gap is 0.34. The valuation measure declined recently, and the current priced-in assessment says fragility is low because weak execution is not combined with the full set of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 44% estimated miss probability keep execution risk in focus, and the latest signal has shifted from mixed to cautious. In Q3, loans and deposits grew, net interest margin improved, and net income returned to a small profit from a Q2 loss; lower expenses helped, though credit quality remains mixed and the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.

What BayCom Corp. hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would add to concerns after recent misses, while progress in earnings and efficiency would support the operating case. Credit stability and the rate environment are also key; the evidence flags rate cuts as a sector risk and stronger results from sector bellwethers as a possible source of support.