Reading BBNX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBNX free→Reading BBNX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBNX free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BBNX is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If BBNX cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 BBNX trades at 6× p/s — 2.1× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $11 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $14–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 35% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.82x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.46 → $-0.55 (-19.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 45.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$240.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$694.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,230.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'expensive'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became expensive. Risk remained elevated. The sector backdrop faced a headwind. Recent financial performance was weak.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth in the sector could help Beta Bionics do better.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BBNX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 21, 2026, the Company announced that it expects to fully commercialize Mint by the end of the second quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory clearance by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”). The updated Mint commercialization timeline expectation is based on the FDA’s initial responses to the Company’s Mint alternate controller enabled (“ACE”) insulin pump 510(k) application, and the progress the Company has made in scaling its Mint manufacturing processes. The C…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$14.00 – $22.00 (median $18.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BBNX Beta Bionics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to fully commercialize its Mint product by the end of the second quarter of 2027, pending FDA clearance.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company has announced plans to commercialize Mint by 2027-Q2, contingent on FDA approval. This is a new strategic initiative with no prior financial impact visible in the current financials.
“The Company expects to fully commercialize Mint by the end of the second quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory clearance by the FDA.”
The company has increased its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $131 million to $136 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 increased from $130 million to $136 million. Current revenue for 2026-Q1 is $27.6 million, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the annual target. The trajectory shows an upward revision in expectations but requires substantial delivery in subsequent quarters.
The company aims to improve its gross margin to a range of 57.5% to 59.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin guidance for 2026 increased from 55.5% to 59.5%. Current gross profit for 2026-Q1 is $16.4 million on $27.6 million revenue, indicating a margin of approximately 59.4%. The trajectory is delivering against the revised margin target.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Beta Bionics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise sub…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, Beta Bionics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Ac…
Other Events. On January 29, 2026, Beta Bionics, Inc. (the “Company”) received a warning letter (the “Warning Letter”) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”) following inspection of the Company’s facility in Irvine, California that occurred from June 9, 2025 through June 26, 2025. In the Warning Letter, the FDA cited deficiencies in the response letters sent by the Company to the FDA following the FDA’s issuance of a Form 483, List of Investigational Observations (the “Form 48…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 8, 2026, Beta Bionics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary, unaudited fourth quarter 2025 topline financial results and key metrics. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchang…
“Estimated total revenue of approximately $131 million to $136 million (previously $130 million to $135 million).”
“the company introduced its annual guidance for the year ending December 31, 2026. Estimated total revenue of approximately $130 million to $135 million”
“Estimated gross margin of 57.5% to 59.5% (previously 55.5% to 57.5%).”
“Estimated gross margin of 55.5% to 57.5%”