Reading BBIO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 190% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $66.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $68, BBIO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 28× p/s (3.0× the 9× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~200% near-term growth vs our ~100% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $23 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $95–$130. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 200% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.61x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.61 → $-0.59 (+3.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 56.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$386.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,025.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BBIO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$95.00 – $130.00 (median $101.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BBIO Bridgebio Pharma, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue by leveraging strategic initiatives and partnerships.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue for Q1 2026 was $194.5 million, up from $116.6 million in Q1 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory. The company is delivering on its revenue growth priority through strategic initiatives.
“Revenue for Q1 2026 was $194.5 million, up from $116.6 million in Q1 2025.”
“Revenue increased to $154.2 million in Q4 2025 from $5.9 million in Q4 2024.”
“Revenue for Q3 2025 was $120.7 million, compared to $2.7 million in Q3 2024.”
Focus on managing and reducing operating losses to improve financial health.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income for Q1 2026 was -$105.96 million, compared to -$104.37 million in Q1 2025, showing limited progress in reducing operating losses. The company continues to focus on managing these losses, but improvement is needed.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 7, 2026, BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a registration statement on Form S-3ASR (File No.: 333-295678, the “Registration Statement”) under Rule 415 of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission . In addition, on May 7, 2026, the Company entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC (“Goldman Sachs”) and Leerink Partners…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On May 7, 2026, in connection with entering into the Agreement, the Company agreed with Goldman Sachs and Leerink Partners (formerly known as SVB Securities LLC), to terminate that certain Equity Distribution Agreement, dated May 4, 2023, by and among the Company, Goldman Sachs and Leerink Partners, effective as of May 7, 2026. Forward-Looking Statements To the extent that statements in this Current Report on Form 8-K are not strictly historical,…
Other Events. On May 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company approved a stock repurchase program pursuant to which the Company may purchase up to $500 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock. Stock repurchases under the program may be made from time to time, in the open market, in privately negotiated transactions and otherwise, at the discretion of management of the Company and in accordance with applicable federal securities laws, including Rule 10b-18 of the Exchange Act,…
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
“Operating income for Q1 2026 was -$105.96 million, compared to -$104.37 million in Q1 2025.”
“Operating income for Q4 2025 was -$139.56 million.”
“Operating income for Q3 2025 was -$145.20 million.”