Reading AVNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVNS free→Reading AVNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVNS free→NYSEHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If AVNS cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $21 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 21% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.16 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$24.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$310.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,101.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'elevated'.
As of June 16, 2026, risk rose, changing from a moderate to an elevated label. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, indicating challenges in the environment surrounding the company. Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is noted as loss-making. The management stance is stable and capital-friendly.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Avanos needs better cash flow. This is important after a negative cash flow in Q1.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in Q2, exceeding $5 million.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVNS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Supplies.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVNS Avanos Medical, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | elevated |
MDLN MEDLINE INC | — | full | moderate |
WST West Pharmaceutical Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COO Cooper Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALGN Align Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: New directors may change Avanos' growth plans and how the company operates.
Confirms one read:The new board members make changes that improve operations in six months.
Confirms the other:There are no clear changes in strategy or performance after the new board members join.
Why it matters: This segment showed strong growth in Q1. Continued growth is key for overall revenue stability.
Confirms:Q2 Specialty Nutrition Systems segment net sales grow year over year by more than 15%.
Disproves:Q2 Specialty Nutrition Systems segment net sales grow year over year by less than 5%.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 13, 2026, Avanos Medical, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) by and among the Company, A-AV Holdco I, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Parent”), and A-AV MergerSub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Subsidiary”). Upon the terms and conditions set forth in the Merger Agreement, Merger Subsidiary will be merged with and into the Company (the “Mer…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Avanos Medical, Inc. (the “Company”) increased the target value of the annual long-term incentive grant to which David C. Pacitti, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, is eligible under the Company’s 2021 Long Term Incentive Plan, as amended, from $5,000,000 to $5,500,000, effective beginning in 2026.
Results of Operation and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, Avanos Medical, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 25, 2026, Avanos Medical, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a letter agreement (the “Agreement”) with Bradley L. Radoff and The Radoff Family Foundation (collectively, the “Radoff Parties”). In connection with the Agreement, the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) has agreed, among other things, to take all actions necessary to: (i) nominate James L. Cunniff to stand for election to the Board at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting…