Reading ATRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRA free→Reading ATRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATRA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while its earnings yield is above typical for the sector. If ATRA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative, as the Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 ATRA trades at 1× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $88 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 90% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.73x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.35 (-183.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$363.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$971.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,689.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A big drop in operating expenses shows management cares about cutting costs. This is important for financial health.
Confirms:Q2 operating expenses decrease by more than 20% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating expenses stay the same or go up compared to Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATRA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 11, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) appointed Brian Cherry to serve as a member of the Board as a Class I director, effective June 11, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”). Mr. Cherry was also appointed to the Audit Committee of the Board. The Board has determined that Mr. Cherry is ind…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATRA Atara Biotherapeutics Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | — | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on reducing operating expenses year-over-year through cost-reduction initiatives.
Ensure sufficient funding for planned operations through the end of 2026 using cash, investments, and efficiencies.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show Atara's financial health and progress. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth or better cost management from previous quarters.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses or falling revenue.
Why it matters: The new director may affect important decisions. This can change the company's direction and performance.
Confirms one read:There are good changes in strategy or governance practices. These were reported in 6 months.
Confirms the other:There are no clear improvements in governance or strategy. This is after 6 months.
Why it matters: The health care sector is maturing. If revenue growth re-accelerates, it could benefit Atara. This will show if the sector is improving.
Confirms:The health care sector reports revenue growth speeding up to 10% or more.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Why it matters: Brian Cherry's appointment could signal changes in Atara's direction and focus. Investors will want to see how this affects company decisions.
Confirms one read:Management will share a new plan in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:No big changes in strategy are shared after the board appointment.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for funding operations through 2026. It shows financial stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
and in the press release included as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of Section 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such fi…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On April 30, 2026, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) received a notice (the “Notice”) from the Listing Qualifications Department (the “Staff”) of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that the Company no longer meets Nasdaq’s $50 million minimum market value for listed securities (“MVLS”) requirement pursuant to Nasdaq Listing Rule 5450(b)(2)(A) (the “MVLS Requ…
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release titled “Atara Biotherapeutics Provides Regulatory Update on Tabelecleucel” providing an update following the Type A meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”) to discuss the Complete Response Letter for the EBVALLO™ Biologics License Application issued on January 9, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference into this
and in the press release included as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of Section 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, whether made before or after the date hereof, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such fi…