Reading ARW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARW free→Reading ARW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARW free→NYSEInformation TechnologyElectronics & Computer DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, ARW is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Watch for guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact ARW's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $228.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $229 ARW trades at 16× p/e, below its 29× p/e peer median. Our $433 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $165–$260. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.28 → $4.46 (+36.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 24.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$254.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,354.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sales growth is below 20%, Arrow's recovery may slow down. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Global components sales growth reported below 20% year over year for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Global components sales growth reported above 20% year over year for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 7, 2026, Arrow Electronics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 earnings. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$165.00 – $260.00 (median $230.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARW Arrow Electronics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SNX TD Synnex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CDW CDW Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AVT Avnet | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NSIT Insight Enterprises, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on enhancing gross profit through strategic pricing and cost control.
Why it matters: If sales growth is below 8%, ECS may face problems. This could hurt overall performance.
Confirms:ECS sales growth reported below 8% year over year for Q2 2026.
Disproves:ECS sales growth reported above 8% year over year for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income margins would show that Arrow can control costs and make more money.
Confirms:Operating income margin improves from 3.5% to 4% or higher in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income margin is still below 3.5% in Q2 2026.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 5, 2026, Arrow Electronics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 o…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors, Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. In connection with his appointment as Interim President and CEO, on September 30, 2025, the Company and Mr. Austen entered into an offer letter, effective as of September 16, 2025, pursuant to which Mr. Austen will receive an annual base salary of $1,200,000 and was awarded a one-time, special grant of restricted stock units (the “RSUs”), with a gr…