Arrow Electronics (ARW)

NYSEInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$209.76+0.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arrow Electronics’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$4.83–$5.03non-GAAP $4.72–$4.92	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	10.59B
EPS	—	6.172
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	40.04B
EPS	—	21.807
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	43.08B
EPS	—	24.538

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at or above $4.42 in Q2 FY2026	A primary condition in Arrow Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.42 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $4.32 in Q2 FY2026	Diluted EPS: $5.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.42 per share. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 20265.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9639dd2d-b436-47c2-ba67-7651aa067c7c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit stays above $1.09B quarterly	The company keeps improving gross profit and managing costs well.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $900 million quarterly	Gross profit: $1.125B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.09 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,125,209,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9639dd2d-b436-47c2-ba67-7651aa067c7c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit increased from $803 million in 2025-Q4 to $1.125 billion in 2026-Q2, reflecting a 40% increase. This growth aligns with management's focus on higher-margin offerings and operational efficiency, showing delivery on the priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to sustain above $360M	Profit rose strongly with operating income doubling to $361.6M.	Intact	Operating income falls below $300 million over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $377.333M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $360 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026377,333,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9639dd2d-b436-47c2-ba67-7651aa067c7c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Global Components operating income grew from $219 million in 2025-Q4 to $396 million in 2026-Q2, a 112% increase year-over-year. Operating income improvements reflect disciplined execution and operational momentum, indicating the priority is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $9.45B in Q2 FY2026	A primary condition in Arrow Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is >= $9.45 billion.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $9.15 billion in Q2 FY2026	Revenue: $9.992B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.45 billion. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 20269,992,237,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9639dd2d-b436-47c2-ba67-7651aa067c7c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenue grew from $8.7 billion in 2025-Q4 to $10.0 billion in 2026-Q2, a 32% increase year-over-year. Global Components sales increased 39% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with consistent double-digit revenue growth across quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	1	2
2026-06-01	2	1	1
2026-07-01	2	1	1
2026-08-01	2	1	1
2026-09-01	2	1	1
2026-10-01	2	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at or above $4.42 in Q2 FY2026Published status: Under Pressure
Gross profit stays above $1.09B quarterlyGross profit: $1.125B
Operating income improves to sustain above $360MOperating income: $377.333M
Revenue grows to at least $9.45B in Q2 FY2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arrow Electronics outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ARW is an established technology distributor with a recent growth and operating-improvement story. Its long-term thesis is intact, and company momentum has improved, but management is rated neutral and the evidence snapshot gives only medium confidence.

What's priced into Arrow Electronics

The evidence describes ARW as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 36% premium versus peers and low model confidence, so the valuation picture is mixed. Expectations are tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the outlook embedded in the valuation may not be easy to exceed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: revenue, gross profit, and Global Components operating income have all grown, and management’s stated priorities are on track. The next-call guidance is a key near-term risk; recent earnings surprises have been erratic, despite a low estimated miss probability. A recent president transition and disclosed financial obligation add context, but the snapshot gives limited detail on their effects.

What Arrow Electronics hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and operating improvement without a guidance cut. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The evidence does not explain the financial obligation or M&A terms, so their longer-term effects remain unclear.