Reading AVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVT free→Reading AVT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronics & Computer DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. However, earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from AVT and the performance of sector bellwethers like SNX, ARW, and CNXN. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $91.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 AVT trades at 24× p/e, below its 29× p/e peer median. Our $113 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.28 → $1.77 (+38.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$249.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,066.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Sales guidance below this level may show slowing demand or market issues.
Confirms:Q4 sales guidance falls below $7.30 billion.
Disproves:Q4 sales guidance meets or exceeds $7.60 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Avnet, Inc. issued a press release announcing its third quarter results of operations for fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, no…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVT Avnet | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SNX TD Synnex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CDW CDW Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ARW Arrow Electronics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NSIT Insight Enterprises, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Drive improvements in operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: More inventory days may mean too much stock or slower sales.
Confirms:Days of inventory rises above 80 days.
Disproves:Days of inventory stays below 77 days.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show weaker profits and hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Adjusted diluted EPS prints below $1.70.
Disproves:Adjusted diluted EPS meets or exceeds $1.80.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On September 30, 2025, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Avnet, Inc. (the “Company”), following careful deliberation, approved PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the Company’s new independent registered public accounting firm, subject to completion of its standard client acceptance procedures. This decision resulted in the effective dismissal of KPMG LLP as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. KPMG LLP was inform…