Reading CNXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNXN free→Reading CNXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNXN free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronics & Computer DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with CNXN trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $71 CNXN trades at 20× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $108 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.04 (-1.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$233.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,714.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed, moving from high to medium. Risk fell, indicating a reduction in perceived volatility. The sector backdrop remained a tailwind, suggesting ongoing support from the broader market environment. The valuation is described as cheap, with peer multiples implying a price significantly above the current trading level.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak revenue growth could signal that demand is slowing, impacting future performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 3% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
New leadership aims to drive growth and expansion.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNXN PC Connection, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SNX TD Synnex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CDW CDW Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ARW Arrow Electronics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AVT Avnet | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategies to drive higher revenue growth.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on strategies to enhance gross profit margins.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program may show management's trust in the stock.
Confirms:They may announce more share buybacks beyond the current $81.2 million.
Disproves:No updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: If this segment stabilizes, it may show recovery from recent drops.
Confirms:Public Sector Solutions segment sales show less than a 10% decline year over year.
Disproves:Public Sector Solutions segment sales decline more than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A better gross margin would help the company make more money.
Confirms:Gross margin reported above 19.5% in future quarters.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 19.5% in future quarters.
Threatens: Improve operating income
Profit decline indicates cost management issues.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Award enhances brand and growth potential.
Advances: Improve operating income
Dividend increase signals financial health.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
Earnings miss raises growth concerns.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Earnings beat indicates strong sales performance.
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Regulation FD Disclosure On February 4, 2026, Connection also announced in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend. Connection also announced that its Board of Directors approved a $50.0 million increase to Connection’s existing share repurchase program, bringing the aggregate size authorized to $220.0 million, of which approximately $81.2 million is available after giving effect to the increase. The information in