Reading AGIO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGIO free→Reading AGIO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGIO free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 211% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 AGIO trades at 29× p/s — 3.0× the 10× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $13 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 217% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 78%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.90x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.58 → $-1.67 (-6.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$153.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$402.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,089.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Agios can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Missed expectations on sickle cell pain impacts product perception.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and other business highlights. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwis…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Execute the U.S. commercial launch of AQVESME for thalassemia treatment.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Agios plans to use its financial resources to support the U.S. commercial launch of AQVESME in thalassemia. With revenue at $20.7M in 2026-Q1, the company is focusing on this product launch, but financials show a net income loss of $99.1M, indicating limited progress in profitability.
“Agios expects that its cash...will provide the financial independence to execute the U.S. commercial launch of AQVESME in thalassemia.”
Prepare for the potential U.S. commercial launch of mitapivat.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Agios is preparing for the potential U.S. commercial launch of mitapivat. Despite this strategic focus, the company's financials show a net income loss of $99.1M in 2026-Q1, suggesting challenges in achieving profitability alongside new product launches.
“Agios expects that its cash...will provide the financial independence to...prepare for the potential U.S. commercial launch of mitapivat.”
Aim to achieve over $1 billion in peak global sales.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Agios aims to achieve over $1 billion in peak global sales. However, with current revenue at $20.7M in 2026-Q1 and a net income loss of $99.1M, the company faces significant challenges in reaching this ambitious sales target.
“with potential to achieve over $1 billion in peak global sales”
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it may help Agios. A stronger sector can improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth increases back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth continues to slow below 10%.
Strategic expansion in rare hematology suggests potential partnerships.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and other business highlights. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Ac…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 and other business highlights. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or ot…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 31, 2025, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 and other business highlights. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On July 3, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board (the “Corporate Governance Committee”), elected Jay Backstrom, M.D., MPH, as a director, effective as of July 8, 2025 (the “Effective Date”). Dr. Backstrom ha…