Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. (AARD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
$1.44-4.64%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AARD beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 5% on a typical day and fell roughly 93% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAARD’s clinical-data assessment and regulatory path carry its investment case. The company remains unprofitable, with only one recent earnings result recorded. Q2 FY2026 GAAP earnings beat consensus, though the company still reported a loss. AARD trades at 7× sales versus a 10× peer median; its historical multiple was 25×. The market prices in more growth than our forecast, despite that peer discount. The specific risk is terminated HERO and OLE trials, which threaten clinical-data assessment. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 47%. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. AARD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering AARD (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AARD in the last 4 months.
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Compare AARD with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AARD next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
FDA lifting the clinical hold is a meaningful regulatory catalyst, though trial data and runway remain key.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $1.44
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $1.44.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Assess unblinded clinical data from HERO and OLE trials
Price-target cut cites trial termination, directly threatening clinical-data assessment and the product thesis.
Regulatory uncertainty impacts ARD-101's development timeline.
Downgrade reflects concerns over FDA hold affecting future guidance.