Reading WSBF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WSBF free→Reading WSBF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WSBF free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in interest rates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 WSBF trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $919.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Waterstone is managing in a slowing growth environment. Results can impact investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a year-over-year increase in earnings.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a year-over-year decline in earnings.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WSBF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Waterstone Financial, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission as Exhibit 99.1 attached to this report and incorporated by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WSBF Waterstone Financial, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare a regular quarterly dividend on outstanding shares of common stock.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Waterstone's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims show how the economy is doing. If claims rise, it may hurt Waterstone's business.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims go up a lot compared to previous weeks.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Other Events. On April 27, 2026, Waterstone Financial, Inc. issued a press release announcing that the Company's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional 2,000,000 shares of the Company's outstanding shares of common stock under its existing repurchase program. Combined with the shares authorized today, there are 2,148,285 shares available for repurchase under the Company's repurchase program. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 attached to this rep…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 17, 2026, the Board of Directors of Waterstone Financial, Inc. (the "Company") declared a regular quarterly dividend on the Company's outstanding shares of common stock. The news release containing this information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, Waterstone Financial, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission as Exhibit 99.1 attached to this report and incorporated by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 18,2025, the Board of Directors of Waterstone Financial, Inc. (the "Company") declared a regular quarterly dividend on the Company's outstanding shares of common stock. The news release containing this information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.